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Me#1You#10
Site Admin
Joined: 06 May 2004
Posts: 6503
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 Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 7:11 pm Post subject: New Republic: "THAT AWFUL PEW POLL" |
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I dunno folks, but judging from this hand-wringing at a "competition" publication, Ms. Pelosi et al may have to reach for the smelling salts come tomorrow evening...
| Quote: | The Plank
Michael Crowley, Jason Zengerle, and TNR's Staff
The New Republic
11.05.06
THAT AWFUL PEW POLL:
John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it's not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats' advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9. The Northeast is, of course, a region where Democrats are banking on roughly half a dozen pick-ups. That kind of dropoff isn't going to get the job done. (One bright spot: the Dems' advantage in the Midwest held steady.)
The only result John and I disagree on is the fallout from the Kerry joke. Nearly 20 percent of independents told Pew that the joke raised doubts in their minds about voting Democratic (versus 36 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Dems). John thinks that's a disastrously high number. I think it could be bad news, but it need not be.
The New Republic - cont'd |
HT:Powerline |
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shawa
CNO
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 2004
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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Captains Quarters has a good examination of the internals of the Pew Poll.
I hate to put a lot of stock in polls, but HOLY COW, this is a phenomenal
sea change in a month's time.
| Quote: | In a month, the Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among all whites went from +5 Democrats to +5 GOP, a ten-point swing. White females had supported Democrats by a 15-point margin and a majority (55-40), but now give the GOP a 2-point lead. The Democrats have also lost the middle class, a big problem in this election.
In the religious demographics, where the Democrats have tried mightily to find some traction, they also have problems. They held a thin lead (5 points) among all Protestants, but now trail by 9. Their ten-point lead among white mainline Protestants has dissipated into a tie. They lead among all Catholic, having lost three points off of an eight-point lead, but non-Hispanic Catholics now favor the GOP by 5 points, a ten-point shift.
Even in areas where Democrats maintained their leads, they have cause for some nail-biting. They lost part of their margin among self-described moderates, going from a whopping 44 points to 27. They had led in all regions of the country a month ago, but now have lost the South altogether in a 16-point shift, and a 26-point gap in the Northeast has narrowed to nine points -- a remarkable comeback for Republicans in a liberal stronghold. The GOP also cut the Democratic lead among urban voters from 32 points to 10.
The theme of this poll is the attack on Democratic gains in this election cycle. The GOP has rolled back the Democratic intrusion onto Republican demographics, which leaves the field looking similar to 2004 and 2002. This race may hold some very unpleasant surprises for the Democrats in the House races if these numbers hold up or continue to erode over the next 40 hours. |
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/008449.php
_________________
“I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. ‘Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death.” (Thomas Paine, 1776) |
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LimaCharlie
PO2
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 386
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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The only reliable poll will be published on Wednesday morning.
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I was going to become an anarchist, but they had too many rules. |
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BuffaloJack
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 1637
Location: Buffalo, New York
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 8:49 pm Post subject: |
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The problem with polls (and the democrats never get this) is that they can be wrong.
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Swift Boats - Qui Nhon (12/69-4/70), Cat Lo (4/70-5/70), Vung Tau (5/70-12/71) |
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Deuce
Senior Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 19 Mar 2005
Posts: 589
Location: FL
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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LC,
Remember the rules, LC, if the Dems win, the 'poll' will be published Weds morning....if they lose, it could be next year before all the lawyers are done whittling all the chads!
I don't believe in polls either, but Fox had an interesting guest recently (a pollster I think), who noted that 'Security Moms' who were UNINFORMED ( the fox anchor babe said 'uneducated') and who had voted for Bush last election, may switch, but that the INFORMED security moms were still with us. Fox also had an UNINFORMED security mom vouch for the fact she had voted for Bush but was going Dem this time....clearly UNINFORMED. Time will tell how many UNINFORMED security moms we lose to sKerry's pals tomorrow! So regardless of their inaccuracies, the 17 point swing among our fairer ones was a pleasing message to read about.
Deuce |
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