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Fort Campbell
Vice Admiral
Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 896
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 Posted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 1:58 pm Post subject: The failure of the Senate Immigration Bill |
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/why_the_senate_immigration_bill_failed
| Quote: | Why the Senate Immigration Bill Failed
Friday, June 08, 2007
Elite newspapers and countless bloggers are writing their own explanations of why the compromise immigration legislation failed last night. Most of the write-ups discuss legislative tactics, an amendment offered by Senator Byron Dorgan (D), or some particular provision of the bill dealing with amnesty or guest workers.
The reality is much simpler and has nothing to do with legislative tactics. The immigration bill failed because a broad cross-section of the American people are opposed to it. Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters are opposed. Men are opposed. So are women. The young don’t like it; neither do the no-longer-young. White Americans are opposed. Americans of color are opposed.
The last Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll found that just 23% of Americans supported the legislation. When a bill has less popular support than the War in Iraq, it deserves to be defeated.
There is no mystery to why the public opposed the bill. In the minds of most Americans, immigration means reducing illegal immigration and enforcing the border. Only 16% believed the Senate bill would accomplish that goal.
It wasn’t amnesty or guest-worker programs or paths to citizenship that doomed the bill. Each of those provisions made it more difficult for some segments of the population to accept. However, most voters were willing to accept them as part of a true compromise that accomplished the primary goal of reducing illegal immigration.
The key to winning voter support was to accomplish that primary goal.
The Senators missed that point and that’s where the mystery resides in analyzing why this bill failed. It’s not unusual for political leaders to be out of touch with their constituents, but rarely this out of touch. How could something this unpopular with voters get so close to passage in a legislative body that is supposed to represent them?
From the beginning, the Senate approached the issue with top priority of addressing the legal status of the illegal aliens. They addressed concerns about guest-worker programs and questions about whether family or skill level should be more important when determining who could enter the country.
All of those are important questions, but they are not the most important question. Rasmussen Reports polling found that 72% of Americans believe it’s Very Important to reduce illegal immigration and enforce the borders. Just 29% said it was Very Important to legalize the status of those illegally living in the country today.
After ignoring the main point that voters were hoping to address, Senators should not have been shocked at the public reaction. But they were.
With all the polling data in the world today, how could they have failed to see this coming? While Rasmussen Reports was the only public polling firm to directly ask about support or opposition to the Senate bill, other polling data such as a recent CBS News/New York Times survey provided plenty of warning signs. Besides, the nation’s politicians purchase plenty of private polling data that should have given them a hint.
We live in a world where most Americans believe that most Members of Congress will sell their vote for cash or a campaign contribution. Only 16% believe the legislators’ votes are not for sale. By a nearly 5-to-1 margin, voters believe that Members of Congress are more interested in their own careers and agenda rather than the public good.
In that environment, the only way for political leaders to prove they are serious about enforcing the border and reducing illegal immigration will be to do it. That’s the next logical step in the immigration debate.
There are plenty of steps that could be taken quickly with solid voter support. Some may require new laws while others may simply require enforcement of the existing laws. But, voters aren’t concerned about the specifics—they’ll support serious efforts to reduce illegal immigration. This could include imposing employer sanctions, building a barrier, adding more border patrol agents, supporting local law enforcement efforts, and more.
Once the government actually enforces the border, then the debate can begin on all other aspects of immigration reform. Then, the same politicians who were stunned by their misreading of the public on this bill will probably be stunned to learn something else—most Americans actually do favor a welcoming and open immigration policy.
The United States is a nation of immigrants. It is also a nation of laws. Voters want to honor both aspects of the national heritage. And, like good parents trying to instill values in their children, voters want their elected representatives to do the same.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined. |
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LewWaters
Admin
Joined: 18 May 2004
Posts: 4042
Location: Washington State
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| Posted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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As one commenter and fellow blogger said on my blog yesterday, "My family is getting calls from all the GOP arms asking for money and we reply "When I see the fence, I'll start sending money." "
Although the bill isn't entirely dead just yet, we need to keep telling Washington D.C. that WE want enforcement and secure borders FIRST!!
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AMOS
Senior Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 30 Jul 2004
Posts: 558
Location: IOWA
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| Posted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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Build a FENCE (I'll even donate, if tax deductible) AND, pardon those Border Patrol agents that got shafted by some clown prosecutor named Sutton.
To our Founding Fathers, I apologize again and again and again.............. |
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kate
Admin
Joined: 14 May 2004
Posts: 1891
Location: Upstate, New York
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| Posted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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From the news coming out, seems this is just a reprieve. W, Kennedy, Graham, et all are making a lot of noise about seeing this through, and individually targeting those senators who voted against the cloture
One org I've been supporting during this is Grassfire.org
They've got this TV ad running in a few locations..maybe some have seen it
Where’s The Fence?
Reminder to Washington congresscritters---
H.R. 6061, the Secure Fence Act of 2006, was signed by W, and became public law Oct. 26, 2006...so where is it?
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one of..... We The People |
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dusty
Admiral
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 1264
Location: East Texas
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| Posted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 2:18 am Post subject: |
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Kate is right. The Grassfire group has been working hard on making sure the senators are aware of the public's concern over this issue.
I posted it on another thread but I'll put it on here too. Here's my cap from Grassfire. I like to think my small donation helped in this first defeat of this bill that does little to get the fence built or the border secured.
I wear it everywhere I go. So far I've only gotten positive comments on it.
Dusty
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kate
Admin
Joined: 14 May 2004
Posts: 1891
Location: Upstate, New York
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| Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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The failure of the Senate Immigration Bill - Chapter II
Some really stood out, against the elite Lords of the Senate during the recent final vote against cloture. There are dozens of articals in the press & blogs-- this headline kinda nails it
washington times
Junior GOP senators defeat old guard
June 29, 2007 | Stephen Dinan
| Quote: | The immigration-reform bill was supposed to be a defining moment for the old guard.
Sen. Edward M. Kennedy could establish a new civil rights legacy to rival his brothers'; Sen. John McCain could show leadership and accomplishment by standing up to his party's base; and President Bush could secure a major domestic achievement for his second term.
Instead, the young guns — a small, wily group of junior Republican senators, most of them with less than a full term in the upper chamber — sent the bill into a tailspin, tying Democratic leaders into legislative knots and earning enough opposition among senators to block the Senate bill, culminating in yesterday's vote to kill the measure.
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Thank you's especially to Senators Session, Vitter, DeMint, Dole, Corker, and more, who listened to we the People. They did an outstanding job in the 10 minutes they were allowed to speak ( while the other side got 50 minutes) Sen Sessions yielded most of his time to these 2 gentlemen. On a personal note, I'm sending them all a message of thanks, and support
( some snips)
| Quote: | DeMINT
, this immigration bill has become a war between the American people and their Government. The issue now transcends anything related to immigration. It is a crisis of confidence between what the American people believe our Government is and should be, what it is to them now, and what they perceive it to be.
This vote today is really not about immigration. It is about whether we are going to listen to the American people and realize we need to proceed more carefully, in a more sensitive manner, and appear to be listening to the concerns of the American people.
VITTER
...we all stand here on the floor of the Senate and regularly acknowledge and even praise the common sense and the wisdom of the American people. Well, this vote this morning for each of us is about whether you really believe that or whether it is just a cheap political line to use.
The American people get it, and they do have common sense and wisdom on this issue. They know repeating the fundamental mistakes of the 1986 bill, joining a big amnesty with inadequate enforcement, will cause the problem to grow and not diminish. They know promising enforcement after 30 years of broken promises isn't good enough.
<>
The question is: Do we or do we decide that Washington knows best? This isn't just a vote about immigration. This is a vote about whether this body is out of touch, whether this body is arrogant, or whether it will respect the true wisdom and common sense of the American people.
DeMINT
Mr. President, one of the most encouraging parts about this debate--there is a silver lining--is it has reengaged the American people and shown us that we are truly a government of the people. They have spoken and they have spoken loudly. Our phones have been ringing off the hooks. We have received e-mails and letters. People are trying to get in touch with us. Even now, they are calling in such numbers that it has crashed the telephone system in the Senate.
My question to the Senate today is: What part of ``no'' don't we understand? We need to vote no against cloture and stop this process that is alienating the American people from what we do, and then enforce the laws that are on the books and prove we are a nation of laws and that we will enforce the laws that have been passed by this Congress
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LewWaters
Admin
Joined: 18 May 2004
Posts: 4042
Location: Washington State
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| Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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Returning to the first article, I think it explains itself within the article,
"legal status of the illegal aliens"
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Theresa Alwood
Rear Admiral
Joined: 05 Jun 2004
Posts: 631
Location: Florida
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| Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 2:52 am Post subject: |
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I know I sent numerous e-mail to my Senators (both of which I am ashamed to say voted with their party - Durbin & Obama) rather than the voice of those who voted them into office.
I wish I had known about this grassroots efforts. I know I sent e-mails out with to friend and family requesting that they to take the effort and sent the link to the senate page along with the names of all the republicans who vote yes on the Tues vote. I sat Tues night e-mailing each of these Senators.
How sad it is that our elected officals have a lower rating than ever. It it sad that most Americans believe that they can be bought..and I believe that also.
Where have all the good men/women gone?
Sad to say the majority of them are not serving in the Senate.
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