SwiftVets.com

DaveL · Commander Joined: 25 Aug 2004 Posts: 300

Two way race: Bush 44%, Kerry 45%, Undecided 11% (previously 43%, 48%, 9%). All of these changes within the margin of error.

Bush Job Approval at 51%, a 6 point gain since Aug 4.

Tony Snow says...

"Swift Boat Vets have in fact made a dent in Kerry popularity"
"There really isn't that much of a gain for President Bush"
"If George Bush does not get a significant bounce from the convention, he is in deep trouble"
"The polls within the polls indicate that John Kerry is leading in most battle ground states"
"There has been very little change overall and that is probably better news for John Kerry"

Keep the Pressure on!

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

DaveL,

I am suprised to hear pro-Kerry spin on Fox, but that's what it is. The poll numbers are a disaster for Kerry.

1. Bush's Job approval on the Fox poll is now over 50%. For an incumbant president in August, that is pretty much an automatic reelect number. In fact the job approval rating is a much better indicator right now than the actual poll.

2. Support for Kerry has TANKED. This means Kerry has to spend time on damage control.

So no, President Bush is actually doing very well.
_________________
-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

jataylor11 · Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 7:27 pm Post subject:

50% is not enough ---
The battleground states is where Kerry would become CIC ---

I hope that the SwiftVets have further incoming --- AD3, AD4---

Even something that addresses Kerry's attempts to stifle free speech --- throw the "smear" claim back on him.

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

jataylor,

Yes we need to press on, but Kerry is showing erosion in the battleground states too. Almost all of them are effectively tied. Ignore anything by Zogby and you get a better picture (Zogby uses an interactive system that is inherently flawed).

The point is this: Bush has momentum before his own party convention. That is huge. In addition, you really do need to pay attention to the Job Approval rating. The major campaigns do; I assure you.

In short, what you heard was pro-Kerry spin. I am suprised at that coming from Fox but there it is.
_________________
-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

Hans Burkhardt · Ensign Joined: 05 Aug 2004 Posts: 53 Location: USA

How about:

As a congressman Kerry took an oath to uphold and protect the constitution. Now he is running for president, that office requires he take and oath to uphold and defend the constitution. Meanwhile, in reality, he is doing everything in his power to squash the SwiftVets first amendment rights.

Not an original thought, but not pushed hard enough (IMHO) Rolling Eyes

forgivenjojo · Former Member Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 159

Dont pay attention to Nationwide polls. STATE BY STATE is where the golden nugget is at.

I am extremely Pro Bush and Pro Swiftee. HOWEVER, you cant say that a news reporter is "spinning" if he is reporting state by state polls.

I want the truth. Not a false peace.

50% of the people think that BUSH is behind these swiftee ads.

THIS IS WHY I THOUGHT IT WAS DETRIMENTAL for us to get INDIVIDUALLY INVOLVED in a massive newspaper, radio, and flier distribution effort.

BUT, time and time again, people on this site have said," Lets just let the swiftees take care of this on the MSM", "the truth will win", "the internet will deliver"

It matters where the people think this stuff is coming from. A MASSIVE DISTRIBUTION effort done by the people, is seen by the people. Rely on the media and you get a distorted truth. And truth is only good if it comes WHOLE.

go ahead and ramble about how successful we are because Rush and Sean and a couple of other newspaper reporters are on our side.

SWING VOTERS DONT READ OR LISTEN TO THESE MEDIA SOURCES.

bach04 · Lieutenant Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 212

I am not sure how the results of the above poll is better for Kerry. Compared to the last poll, whatever lead he had then is lost now. Bush is gaining momentum at this point. His job approval rating remains consistently over 50%. The media is going to spin so that Kerry may be appear to leading in that that poll; but within the margin of error, that is certainly not true. THE ONLY CONCLUSION IS THAT KERRY IS LOSING NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT.

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

Forgivenjojo,

I disagree with you in part. While it is true that the presidency is decided by 50 statewide polls, national polls do matter because they do influence the battlefied states. Bush is now pulling ahead in the nationwide count. I can confidently predict that the state by state will soon follow. You can go to Rassmussen research and they explain why the national numbers tend to drive the state by state numbers.

Right now the race is TIED when it comes to the electoral college or at least effectively so.

Besides, I think we have been extremely effective and while criticism is welcom, I trust the swiftvets. So far they have not let me down.
_________________
-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

Nomorelies · Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 7:48 pm Post subject:

I do not know of a beter person to analyze the polls than Karl Rove. This guy is a genuis when it comes to knowing which way the votes will break. You can bet he has every single city block in the nation colored in and knows exactly where he can change minds and votes. I listen to Rove.
_________________
Nomorelies Make a donation HERE

DaveL · Commander Joined: 25 Aug 2004 Posts: 300

The battleground states are clearly the key. I have yet to see any electoral college estimates showing a tie or near tie...any links out there?

Thanks

srmorton · Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 7:52 pm Post subject:

Tony Snow is a true conservative, but I think he was just trying to
appear "fair and balanced" since Fox gets accused of being "too
Republican".
_________________
Susan R. Morton

bach04 · Lieutenant Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 212

Alot of the polls (i.e. Zogby) are either biased or flawed in their methods ( oversampling of democrats, etc). It is better to look at the trends and any other consistent movement shown by the polls. So far, we have seen one spectular trend - Kerry is losing support across the board, even in the most liberal of states. While I am not saying that California or Massachusetts will got to Bush, by the way Kerry is handling himself, it is possible that California and Massachusetts will be the next battleground states. :)

forgivenjojo · Former Member Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 159

Admin: sniping at the other members and denigrating the efforts of the entire organization is not productive.

If you don't like the way things are moving, here, then start your own mailing list, blog or web site.

Stop with this over-the-top criticism and negativity.

BT/AR

kmmpatriot · Lt.Jg. Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 146

The new Gallup numbers (Aug 23-25) - nationwide "snapshot" - are just the same as they were for Aug 9-11 - Kerry 47, Bush 50. Couple of questions - Sample size and MOE? Also, has anyone heard anything of the internals on this new as might relate to SBVT???

~Kylie
_________________
The Wise man draws more Advantage from his Enemies, than the Fool from his Friends. - from Poor Richard's Almanac...and a perfect commentary on the current state of this campaign!

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

DaveL,

Yes, I have two sources.

www.rasmussenreports.com/

This shows Kerry leading Bush in EVs 203 to 183 with the rest too close to call. That's effectively a tie.

Likewise

www.electoral-vote.com

If you ignore "barely" states as too close to call (they are), Kerry is leading Bush 192 to 182 with the rest too close to call. Again, a tie.

-Polaris
_________________
-Polaris

Truth is Beauty