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Tony Snow: Today's Fox Poll Better News for Kerry Than Bush
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bach04
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kmmpatriot:

I just checked gallup's site and did not see the new poll numbers. where did you get it?
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Polaris
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Joined: 16 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bach,

Click on the 2004 election section and you will find it. He's right. No change. I find that a bit suprising, but we'll see. Still early.
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Steve Z
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:19 pm    Post subject: Rasmussen polls Reply with quote

Rasmussen also published new Florida numbers. Bush 49 Kerry 47. Previous poll was Kerry 47 Bush 45. For whatever reason, it would seem like some undecideds are breaking for Bush, but Kerry hasn't lost support.

The Fox poll didn't say in which "battleground" states Kerry or Bush led.

But it might well be worth the investment to run the second ad in several large battleground states. I think the second ad will convince more non-military voters, whereas the first ad was aimed mostly at veterans.

It's not over until the fat lady sings!
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carpro
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dave L

Do you have a link to you original post. I'd like to actually read Snow's words.

Looking at those numbers, I don't see how he could come to that conclusion.
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Polaris
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteveZ,

That shouldn't suprise you. The core of Kerry support is "Anybody But Bush" and that is not likely to change....or at least not easily. It also explains the Fox and Gallup numbers.
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Lily
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Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think people should relax this is a marathon not a sprint with the RNC convention and the debates still to come. I think Bush gets a small bounce perhaps 5 points from the convention and then begins pulling away never to look back.It's not lost on people that Kerry has failed to address the issues that the Swiftees have raised and is engaging in legal manuvers and political theater instead. His hypocrisy is on display as well with his stand that only 527s that are against him should be stopped.We are in the middle of a war and voters aren't going to change leaders without a compelling reason.Kerry has not given them one even his Vietnam record is now suspect.
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DaveL
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

carpro wrote:
Dave L

Do you have a link to you original post. I'd like to actually read Snow's words.

Looking at those numbers, I don't see how he could come to that conclusion.



Transcribed those quotes from TiVo right after he gave his analysis.
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bach04
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wouldn't you agree that given the trends of the polls you viewed so far
it is a bad time to be Kerry?
Especially in light of this is prior to RNC convention? It would be interesting to find out the gallup numbers for past elections for this moment in time...
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DaveL
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polaris wrote:
DaveL,

Yes, I have two sources.

www.rasmussenreports.com/

This shows Kerry leading Bush in EVs 203 to 183 with the rest too close to call. That's effectively a tie.

Likewise

www.electoral-vote.com

If you ignore "barely" states as too close to call (they are), Kerry is leading Bush 192 to 182 with the rest too close to call. Again, a tie.

-Polaris



Thanks Polaris...makes me feel better!
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RocketFett
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's ironic, since an L.A. Times poll of all places, today said that Bush is up three points over kerry today, that's up five points from a month ago. And Gallop has Bush's approval rating up to 52% a few days ago. I think that FOX number is an anomoly. Does this mean that FOX is becomming liberal??? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Very Happy
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Me#1You#10
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moving shortly to R&R

Thanks
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Dimsdale
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 26, 2004 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, it is bad for Kerry. Look at the numbers:

Quote:
Two way race: Bush 44%, Kerry 45%, Undecided 11% (previously 43%, 48%, 9%). All of these changes within the margin of error.

Bush Job Approval at 51%, a 6 point gain since Aug 4.


Bush went up a point, Kerry went down 3 points, and the undecideds went up 2 points.

Assuming all is equivalent, the Bush point and the two additional undecided points came out of Kerry's column, costing him three points.

That means Kerry people are wavering or going to Bush.
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MikeGranby
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2004 3:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The key dynamic is whether peple who don't really like Bush that much but are unconvinced about Kerry's ability to take his place are driven towards or away from Kerry by all this. My guess is that these swing voters will end up either not voting or sticking with what they might well consider the devil they know. Remember that even if a sitting President is thought not worthy of a second term, the people have to believe that the alternative is better. The Swifties long-term impact could be to put enough doubts in people's minds that they won't consider the change worth the risk, especially during a time of (effective) war.
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producehawk
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Joined: 14 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2004 4:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The swift vets can only do so much. Bush is still going to have to have a good convention (riots). Then it comes down to the debates. I think bushe's home town style vs the kerry rich munster style will be the difference.
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Scott
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 27, 2004 4:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course, Kerry is already saying that "Bush is a great debater"...he's sandbagging, so that when he loses, he can always claim that Bush is just better at debating...

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(From Laura Ingraham's show, yesterday)
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