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Jack Mclaughlin · PO3 Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 280

This same poll just two weeks back had a dead even race which was in line with most others polls. The Iowa Electronic Market Poll ( where investors bet on winner) had Kerry slightlly ahead and now favors Bush 55% to 45%. Yet the Rasmussen Poll which does daily tracking has it 47% to 47%. What is going on here?

Nomorelies · Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:17 pm Post subject:

Rasmussen only polls in Berkeley?
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lrb111 · Captain Joined: 28 Jul 2004 Posts: 508

Sice tradesport is about "what will happen" instead of "what do you feel right now?" they are 2 completely separate scenarios.

Rassmussen is asking who they are for, but they in no way can predict if the people will actually even vote. If Dems don't want to vote on Nov 2nd, i would be ok with that.
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said Democratic Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "It is inexcusable to mock service and sacrifice."
well, when even the DNC can see it,,,,, then kerry is toast.

RocketFett · PO3 Joined: 05 Aug 2004 Posts: 292

I just posted this in the "Good News From Rassmusen" thread, but I think it's very relevent to this one so I'll post it here too. This is great news and a side of Miller's speech that needs to be grabbed hold of as a fact. It's an unavoidable side effect of the speech last night.

One thing that Limbaugh just said which I believe directly touches on this and the polling of the next couple weeks, is that Senator Miller's speech WILL effect and touch off a mass defection of Reagan Democrats, LEGITIMATE moderate democrats who are sick and tired of their party being hijacked by the liberal radical fringe elements. Senator Zell Miller isn't alone, thank God. He represents millions of rational democrats who voted for Reagan and now have had it put to them to stand up against their indifference and act to take back their party, and vote for President Bush. kerry has to have those people to win, and he no longer has them. I really believe that easily a million or more democrats will not vote for kerry after that speech last night. Anyone who will be voting, will have seen that speech last night. Anyone who didn't take an hour to listen to it, won't take the time to go actually vote. That's a proven fact. If you can't take the time to just watch a speech at home, a speech that has been talked about all over the media this week, then you likely won't take the time to go vote and stand in a line, burn gas and time, etc. I think it's very possible that kerry lost after that speech. Those Reagan Democrats are sick and tired of the pinko liberals cramming their coup takeover of their party down their throats and telling them to shut up. They will not let the kerrys, kennedys, mccauliffes, pelosis, and clintons steal their party anymore. I think this speech last night has finally given them their wake up call and been the shot in the dark to take action and not just be mind numbed drones, in a fog of lies and self-deception that their party is still the party of FDR and JFKENNEDY. It's not. And they have known it for years, but never acted on it. I think they will act on it now, after Senator Miller's speech. If only a couple hundred thousand of those Reagan Democrats in a few key close states act on that, which makes sense since those are the more moderate non-liberal States, then kerry will never get those states and he loses. And he can't switch tacks to handle it because SBVT will NOT get off his back! Once you have your boot on a guys throat you keep it there! You do NOT change feet!
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ccr · Commander Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 325

Today's Rassmussen tracking now shows it @ 49-45. The way the tracks work, the spread should grow on Friday and Saturday's tracks.

It is important to keep in mind that election results are impacted more by external events and the political environment than any other factor that none of the campaigns can control.

Interestingly enough, SBVT has already altered the political environment and is outside event and outside of any campaign control.

Kerry is losing now, but there is no predicting what kind of earth shattering events will occur in the coming 60 days.
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