SwiftVets.com

Dragoro · Lt.Jg. Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 122 Location: Michigan

Latest numbers according to Newsweek. Full list of every topic polled:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/09-04-2004/0002244238&EDATE=
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The Cyber Menace · Seaman Recruit Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 49

Let's not get carried away punching away at our political calculators.

The only way a Kerry comeback in the polls can have any impact is if something actually happens in the campaign. If it doesn't, and the poll numbers still tighten as some say, then what would have been achieved? Bush goes up, then goes down - and we have the same race as we had before without any new developments.

I doubt there would be such level of coordination between Kerry and two seperate news publications that events could be orchestrated for a maximum reverse bounce. I just don't think things work that way.

Maybe they think this 'fighting back' angle by Kerry is it. But it's that strategy that had Kerry falling in the first place.

Furthermore, the underlying numbers can only serve to dampen the chances of an early comeback for Kerry. His unfavourables are high. And the stuff I see coming from Kerry won't change that any time soon.

Scipio · Seaman Recruit Joined: 20 Aug 2004 Posts: 7

Yes, it looks like Newsweek oversampled Republicans.

Doc Jerry · Commander Joined: 28 May 2004 Posts: 339

What is more important than the polls is that the Swift Boat Vets don't let up. When Kerry loses this campaign, it will be the Swiftees who turned the tide. It's important you guys keep the pressure on. Kerry and his crew can't handle it. The key: the Swift Boat Vets.

Medics, we're there when you need us.

Integrity · Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:05 am Post subject:

Polls are irrelevant. Turnout is key. Kerry must be D.O.A. before any ballots are cast. As important, and I think relevant to all Vets, is that the voters deliver a stinging rebuke to the leftists via the ballot box at the national, state and local levels. The radical force that Kerry led that repudiated and slandered our service people has never been properly rebuked. Now would be the appropriate time for Kerry's boat to sink with all hands on board.
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"What our enemies have begun, we will finish,"
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The Cyber Menace · Seaman Recruit Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 49

I just thought of something else. Idea

Instead of skewing the polls in Bush's favour for Kerry's benefit, maybe they're admitting that Kerry is in deep trouble - in large part due to the SBVT. Acknowledging a significant Bush lead now may dampen the shock as it only gets worse for our hero Popeye Kerry. Wink

This Douglas Brinkley acknowledgment of the potential for discrepencies in Kerry's record might be a predictor of things to come. Generals Franks' very open endorsement of the SBVT may be another - as just a small example.

Maybe the press is finally starting to realize that Kerry is a stooge and always has been a stooge. Razz

Dave_R · Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:35 am Post subject:

Is it possible that the reason that Republicans were "oversampled" is that independents might skew more towards Democrats?

Is it possible to get the breakdowns for the last couple of Newsweek polls?

mascari · Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:37 am Post subject:

ProudDaughterofVet · Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:30 am Post subject:

I have waited to comment on this..however, after studying the internals..(I used to do this for a living!!), this is impressive. What happened at the convention, and really before, is yes, the Swifties ads were the turning point in this campaign..and the successful convention for the GOP and the relentless campaiging by Bush has in fact made these polls turn around.

I used to do focus groups..yep, I did..and watching the results of the reactions of the folks to those run by Frank Luntz, who is one of the best in the business..the other factor, little mentioned? The unfortunate, horrific hostage situation in Russia..remember it is back to school time here in the states, and on CNN of all networks, when interviewed, the majority of Russians stated that Putin needed to be stronger on terrorism, and I quote, "Like Mr. Bush in the US"..now..little by little, the voters in this country, are realizing once again, that we need a CIC who we can count on to do the right thing in times of war..not what is right for the UN!

I know this is early..however, if the Swifties keep pounding, and Bush keeps campaigning hard, and not letting up, especially on the CIC issue..he will prevail. Turnout will be high among those who want Bush re-elected, those who "hate" Bush, have no strong need to vote..and for the first time the majority of those voters polled 52% think Bush will be re-elected..this drives turnout down among those who would vote against him.

Keep the pressure on..and do not let up..keep punching, keep the boards lit, the money coming in, and we can all thank the Swifties for enlightening the American voters to the horrid character and IMO, treasonous activity of JFK..we need a President of the United States, not the President of the UN..

Trust me, the polls are good..however, pressure needs to keep being put on Kerry, time to crush his campaign, not just dent it..

PD..

Lily · Lieutenant Joined: 08 Aug 2004 Posts: 244

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

Everyone,

The Time/Newsweek numbers appear to be the REAL DEAL! If you crunched the raw numbers without bias, you would find that Bush has a 16 point lead rather than an 11 point lead.

Both Time and Newsweek rebiased their results in favor of Democrates to renormalize the results to make up for the missing Dem respondants (which is standard fare in polling).

See the details here at Polipundit:

http://www.polipundit.com/2004_09_05_polipundit_archive.html#109443851196284135
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Truth is Beauty

Indianbaboon · Lieutenant Joined: 04 Jul 2004 Posts: 234

whew nice to know

i still don't trust statistics or polls tho Mad

I'll wait for Nov.

Frogg · Ensign Joined: 20 Aug 2004 Posts: 64

Another thing to keep in mind about Rasmussen poll is that they do a three day rolling average. Bush's speech was Thursday night. The first day which would include polls done after Bush's speech would be Sunday.
However, the weekend tends to skew to Democrats (it seems Republicans aren't home on the weekend). However, with this being a three day holiday weekend.....the polls done now would be meaningless. I'd wait till about Wednesday for a true perspective from Rasmussen.

Also, state polls have gone more in Bush's favor since the Convention!

bach04 · Lieutenant Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 212

Call me cynical, but there is something sinister behind the motives of these new recent polls. Being full aware that the liberal mainstream media is capable of pulling off any stunt to get their Kerry boy elected, I am not surprised if there is a plan to make Kerry the "comeback" boy in the weeks ahead. With all the changes occurring in Kerry's camp with the addition of those freaks Begala and Carvile, I am anticipating negative attacks on such a grand scale that the media will spin any "true" poll results to indicate a change in momentum. I really hope that the president steadfastly maintains his course because with all the media press pulling for kerry, I am afraid that everything we are reading right now are part of their scheme to help Kerry - though I hope that I am wrong.