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Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

Everyone,

The new Gallup Poll is out: 52 Bush, 45 Kerry for Likely Voters. The Internals (including some of interest to us) show even more bad news for Kerry than the raw numbers indicate. It would seem that the Time/NW polls weren't that far out of synch.

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/
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-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

sevry · Commander Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 326

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

Severy (and Everyone),

I diagree slightly. It is labor-day just after both parties have had their conventions. The polls reflect the "ground floor" for the final campaign. This is one of three times when polls do matter.

However, the internals are even more important (and what campaign and marketing people....so moderators you may want to bump this upstairs). For those that don't have a subscription to Gallup, here is a new USAToday link with the internal numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
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-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

sevry · Commander Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 326

NortonPete · PO2 Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 385

My favorite recent Poll.

Most people like their Jobs.

Very Happy

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

Sevry,

I do disagree with you. A poll is like anything else: a tool. Too many politicians (like a certain former president) often rely too much on polls and focus groups, but they are important. Why? Because they give you a snapshot of how well your message is getting across...which is why the internals are important.

That's why polling at select times (such as right now at the start of the fall campaign after both party conventions) is a useful tool if you don't take it too seriously. Besides, it's also fun.
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-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

You GottaBeKidding · Rear Admiral Joined: 08 Aug 2004 Posts: 692

One problem with the polls that I saw mentioned on DU.

Many early twenty-somethings are new voters and use only their cell phones, don't even have a home telephone. This group will not be included in telephone polls because there's no way to reach them. Some (many?) of them will vote and they tend to be Kerry supporters.

Polaris · Rear Admiral Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626

Early 20-somethings also don't tend to vote.
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-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

You GottaBeKidding · Rear Admiral Joined: 08 Aug 2004 Posts: 692

Polaris,

Some of them are pretty fired up for this election. I hope you are right and that they do not vote as they haven't voted in the past. However, I would not count on that.

Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

Hey guys, this is my first post on the messageboard. I'm 27, have read the book, and love what all of you Swifties are doing. I also saw the Gallup numbers and was actually a bit disappointed. I expected Bush's lead to be bigger given the Time and Newsweek polls. I'm hoping that the weekend sample might have distorted the outcome. That's my hope anyway.

Part of me is still worried about the outcome of the elections because some of Clinton's evil people are coming to Kerry's rescue. These guys are going to get way down and dirty and their going to try to use Kitty Kelly's new book against Bush. I'm sure the ANG issue will be used by the media again and they'll even bring up these bogus drug charges that Kitty Kelly's promoting.

That's why I hope Bush got more like 54, 55, or 56 in these polls. It gives him some room to drop without effecting the final outcome. Remember, these are Clinton people we're dealing with now.

jack white · Seaman Joined: 04 Aug 2004 Posts: 179

Whacker, as Polaris pointed out polls are tools. I agree the results never should lead to complacency, but in the event you want to know why Kerry's fragile mental condition all but shattered last week you look at the internals.

While it is theoretically (and even actually) possible Kerry could win, those internals within all the polls show that he has gotten to a place very difficult to escape in the last 60 days of an election. The troubling numbers for Kerry relate to perceptions he is a weak and ineffectual leader. If the SBVT drops the Black Star commercial campaign in the next few weeks--spots that feature Kerry's blatant aid and comfort to the enemy which he initially denied and now has been forced to admit--that decline will accelerate. How he ever thought he could avoid having to answer for meeting with the enemy while in the Naval Reserves...well, that probably has something to do with what increasingly appears to be a mental or emotional condition of some sort.

One more point--Bush is above 50 percent in all polls, and this is the magic mark.

So the bottom line is the news is good but 60 days is a long time and there is no room for complacency. But we always have Paris circa 1971 Very Happy

RemodelingGuy · Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:35 pm Post subject:

Skywatch · Ensign Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 74 Location: Michigan

A good place to get a feel for what's really happening with the polls is www.realclearpolitics.com. They average all the major polls and currently show the average to be 49.8 for bush and 43.4 for Kerry. This is a 6.4 point spread for Bush and isn't bad. Also important to note is that the ARG and Zogby polls (which are included in the average) haven't been updated since before the convention ended. Once updated, the spread we've been anticipating may materialize.
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FRONT TOWARD ENEMY

Nomorelies · Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:03 am Post subject:

Whacker wrote:

Stevie · Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:30 am Post subject:

remodeling guy, be easy on the new person.... welcome to the forum, Whacker??

when things got scarey awhile back, I walked around mumbling 'Daivd and Goliath' over and over. Thqt scared my dogs....

I still seem to misunderestimate Bush.... shame on me..... the convention way outdid the DNC's !

What Kerry has misunderestimated is the SBVTS! This has devastated the Kerry campaign.... look at them panic!

Washington ProwlerTerry in Turquoise
By The Prowler
Published 8/10/2004 12:08:45 AM

" The campaign source said that the book was not considered a "serious" problem for the campaign, because, "the media wouldn't have the nerve to come at us with this kind of stuff," says the source. "The senior staff believes the media is committed to seeing us win this thing, and that the convention inoculated us from these kinds of stories. The senior guys really think we don't have a problem here." "

Right, no problem.....