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Jack Mclaughlin PO3
Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 280
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Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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The best way to test the authenticity of the Time-Newsweek Poll is to do an historical perspective. In 1988 Dukakas had built a 17 pt. advantage and after the the Republican Convention Bush 41 took a 5 pt. lead and maintained that margin throughout and eventually won by 5 or 6 pts. Can anyone tell us if the Time-Newsweek numbers back then were in line with the numbers above? |
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jack white Seaman
Joined: 04 Aug 2004 Posts: 179
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Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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Given that both Newsweek and Time are house organs of the Kerry machine, assume their polls are propaganda geared towards:
a) Making everyone complacent; and
b) Lining up the "comback kid" scenario for Kerry when their next rounds of polls show smaller margins for Bush.
Obviously Time and Newsweek took a calculated risk that their polls would demoralize Kerry's storm troopers, so that does indicate Kerry is behind, but assume it isn't nearly as badly as they report. Democrats who supported other candidates in the primary have bitterly complained about how these two "news" magazines, particulalry Newsweek, manipulated polls to build up Dean, destroy him, and then pronounce their boy Kerry was the only "electable" candidate. The same is at work here, although it does reveal their candidate isn't doing well.
In other words, work, work, work like hell between now and November. Treat the polls as showing Kerry 11 points ahead. |
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debinNC Ensign
Joined: 28 Aug 2004 Posts: 51
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Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="Doc Jerry"]What is more important than the polls is that the Swift Boat Vets don't let up. When Kerry loses this campaign, it will be the Swiftees who turned the tide. It's important you guys keep the pressure on. Kerry and his crew can't handle it. The key: the Swift Boat Vets.
I agree, but I understand that the 527s are now prohibited from running ads (within 60 days of the election). I was hoping for another ad focusing on Kerry negotiating in Paris, but how can this happen now? |
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Polaris Rear Admiral
Joined: 16 Aug 2004 Posts: 626
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Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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debinNC,
The SBVT does not take Corporate or Union donations. That means we can run ads all the way to election day. _________________ -Polaris
Truth is Beauty |
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johncollins Seaman Recruit
Joined: 25 Aug 2004 Posts: 2
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Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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The latest Gallup Poll horse race dated 9/5 shows Bush 52 Kerry 45. It seems to confirm the Bush bounce. You can see the latest polls at
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm |
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hopeful Seaman Recruit
Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 38
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Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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Guys,
Your getting your knickers in a knot and some of you are starting to sound like conspiracy theorists. Leave that to the liberals.
As far as the polls are concerned, I would suggest that you keep the numbers in context for the following reasons.
1) Kerry got no bump from his convention. The MSM said that is because the country was evenly divided. They were citing this well before the convention to lower expectations. They knew they were backing a loser but had too much invested.
2) DNC & MSM had their convention and they do an opening candlelight vigil for the victims of 9/11. Victimocracy. And then whine, whine, whine, whine. Then johnny boy gets up, gives a sloppy salute and says, Vietnam, Vietnam, Vietnam! Guess what? No bump. Amazing! MSM knew this would happen, no problem for johnny boy. We told you so.
3) Swiftvets start to get airtime. Kerry starts on the downhill slide. More and more people start to listen and new ads come out, more and more airtime. The roll downhill continues.
4) Republican convention. Rudy, the mayor of America, Ed Koch (Dem. mayor of NYC, Ron Silver a bleeding liberal and his wife another, Zell Miller, a freaking senior Democrat (who by the way gave the Clinton keynote speech), Tommy Franks apolitical general, the sister and wives of 9/11 victims) enough said! The salute to the military, the Ronald Reagan story, and then George Freaking W himself. What we are doing is right and we are going to keep doing it.
5) MSM pans to the protestors. Freakazoids. Dropping their pants, assaulting cops, one is for this, one is for that, no comprehensive message other than they were young, affluent and had all the time in the world on their hands and someone told them to be against Bush. "What are you protesting for?" Duuhhh...and George Bush!
6) johnny boy gives a midnight rebuttal and even the MSM thought it was unbalanced and strange. It was really quite bizarre!
7) MSM comes out of the closet and rants and ralls, and disembles and lies and screams and shouts and says
The American people are not fools. They gave Bill the chance because they thought we were at peace. Kinda like the USA in the 30s. But we have had our Pearl Harbor and in the words of a great president and Democrat "We will achieve the ultimate victory so help us God!"
So while there may be some inaccuracies in the polls, the MSM has to be careful not to lose all of their credibility. They are turning out to be the real losers in this race and they are beginning to realize that.
Fox news ( a cable station with limited access) beat all the MSM stations and their cable networks for coverage. People will put up with only so much BS and then they will seek the truth.
Having said all of that, we must make sure that people get out and vote. That is the only poll that is decisive.
So I say to you, "Get out the vote!!" And I will see you in D. C. on Sept. 12th @ 2:00 p. m. _________________ son/nephew/freind/seabee/subs/swiftvet |
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gospelmidi Seaman Recruit
Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 5
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Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:01 am Post subject: |
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rparrott21 wrote: | I have yet to talk to anyone about the election who is voting for Kerry...my poll says, Bush 100% to Kerry 0%.... | Quoting Ratbert, "I have yet to listen to anyone" about the election who is voting for Kerry.
Only one person has admitted to my face his support for Democrats. But 40% to 50% of likely voters behind Kerry means that they are just not open about their choice around confirmed supporters of Pres. Bush. |
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bach04 Lieutenant
Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 212
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Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2004 2:27 am Post subject: |
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I had my reservations when the Time magazine poll came out initially, and I maintain reservation with the Newsweek poll. I can speak for myself in saying that I had been let down by the media organizations on numerous times, particularly the way they covered the swiftvets and their biased subjectivity against the swifties. Maybe it's just me, but I am believe that there is a sinister purpose in everything that the media does; and nothing is "fair and balanced" like it seems to be. |
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stealthy Lieutenant
Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 237
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