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ccwebb
Ensign
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 74
Location: super boondocks of Chicago, IL
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swing votr
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 85
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 Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.electoral-vote.com
This site is a pretty acurrate view using the latest polls. Last week Bush was killing, but as of 09-13-04 Kerry has a slight lead.
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"I already don't miss it," he said of Washington. Asked to elaborate, he replied: "You know that great feeling you get when you stop banging your head against a wall?" |
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Polaris
Rear Admiral
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 626
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| Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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swingvotr,
See www.electionprojection.com He uses a better model. Not only is votemaster ( www.electoral-vote.com ) biased (they both are), but he uses Zobgy Interactive polls and some questionable methodology when assingning polls. He used to be quite fair when assigning polls, but lately his partisanship has gotten the best of him.
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-Polaris
Truth is Beauty |
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swing votr
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 85
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| Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Polaris wrote: | swingvotr,
See www.electionprojection.com He uses a better model. Not only is votemaster ( www.electoral-vote.com ) biased (they both are), but he uses Zobgy Interactive polls and some questionable methodology when assingning polls. He used to be quite fair when assigning polls, but lately his partisanship has gotten the best of him. |
Is one biased one way, and one biased the other? should I take the two, add them together and then divide by two? haha
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"I already don't miss it," he said of Washington. Asked to elaborate, he replied: "You know that great feeling you get when you stop banging your head against a wall?" |
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msindependent
Vice Admiral
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 891
Location: Colorado
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| Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Actually swing voter, that's what I do. |
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Hammer2
PO2
Joined: 30 Aug 2004
Posts: 387
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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The problem with a lot of the pollsters is that they weight their samples based on a pre-conceived idea about the proportions of each representative group in their polls. If, as many suspect, many people have switched to supporting the President than their polling interviews too many Republicans (they think). They then weight the poll to reduce the number of Republicans polled. It is not sinister, they just think they are accidently getting too many Republicans in their sample - must be some kind of fluke, we'll fix that.
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"The price of freedom is eternal vigilence" - Thomas Jefferson
"An armed society is a polite society" - Thomas Jefferson
"The beauty of the Second Amendment is that it won't be needed until someone tries to take it away." -- Thomas Jefferson |
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