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Steve Z · Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:07 pm Post subject: Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com

I just checked http://www.realclearpolitics.com (which lists results from several polling sources in one place), and they had the Gallup numbers, as well as several others.

There were two Pew polls listed:
9/11-14: Bush 47 Kerry 46 Nader 1
9/8-10: Bush 54 Kerry 38 Nader 2

Talk about margin of error: Is Bush up by 1 or by 16? Did Bush lose 7 points and Kerry gain 8 points in 3 days? I doubt it!!! Methinks the Pew people have trouble finding a representative sample...

I've been following the Rasmussen polls for several months now (they publish results every day), and I did notice that Rasmussen results are usually very close to even nationally (although their state polls can show big margins in places like Texas and Massachusetts).

Rasmussen results don't vary as much with time as other polls. Right after the Abu Ghraib story broke, some polls were showing Kerry up by 5 to 8 points, Rasmussen gave him a 2 to 4 point advantage. Now that Bush is up between 5 to 13 points in most polls, Rasmussen gives him a 4-point lead.

I don't know why this is true, but Rasmussen polls tend to be closer than other polls, in both directions. This can reassure the candidate who is behind, but also motivate the leading candidate to work harder, to not believe things are "in the bag" if the lead is small.

It can be exciting to read a poll showing one's preferred candidate in the lead, but polls can be deceiving. Let's all remember Florida in 2000. Exit polls showed Gore by 6%, but the actual election showed Bush by 0.009%, plus some military absentee ballots the Gore lawyers threw out!

The only poll that counts will be on November 2...
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The traitor will crater!

Kimmymac · Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:01 pm Post subject:

Thank you, Polaris, that did help.

Newt Gingrich said today on FOX he is expecting a 16 point blow-out, and has been saying so since April. The Dems are hanging their hats on the debates, something that I find amusing to contemplate. Kerry will come off like a sanctimonious, self-aggrandizing stiff, with no sense of humor and no center, with the unattractive propensity of sweating through his make-up. Meanwhile, my man George will be floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee.

I just hope Kerry doesn't have a breakdown and end up bunk mates with the forger and the nightly liar. Maybe Moore could make a movie with them as part of their therapy. The 3 Stooges star in: "The 3 Stooges Make a Memo"

azpatriot · Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:22 pm Post subject:

Or Dr. Who Laughing

Hey the inside of my cell is bigger than the outside Rolling Eyes

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2ndamendsis · PO3 Joined: 08 Sep 2004 Posts: 288 Location: NJ

Too Good, Kimmy!
Razz

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FreeFall · LCDR Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 421

I think Kerry is finished. I just heard today on the radio that Florida is letting Nader on the ballot. In 2000, he took away enough votes from Gore that Bush won Florida. The Dems were trying to keep Nader off, but I guess they didn't get their way this time either.