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Things are looking up my dear Swifties!!
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mascari
Seaman Apprentice


Joined: 09 Aug 2004
Posts: 79
Location: Medina, OH

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cipher wrote:
Quote:
I live in liberal MN which was the only state Reagan did not carry in 1984


To be fair, Mondale *did* take Washington, DC, too.


Big deal. Its 90% demoncrat. And to be fair he did say "state". Wink

I want to see a Swifties ad that will put NY and CA in play... Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil
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buffman
LCDR


Joined: 21 Aug 2004
Posts: 437

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 2:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know New York gets some of the Swiftie ads via the Penn stations. I wonder if CA would still hold for Kerry if some Swiftie ads and some strong Arnold campaigning took place?
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minnie presley
Commander


Joined: 13 Jul 2004
Posts: 307

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 2:51 am    Post subject: nm Reply with quote

Laughing I am in nm too and most of the people in this area are dems, however, this past week I have seen several signs go in front yards for GWB, very encouraging, I am starting to beleive maybe NM will go to GW, this time love to stick it to couple of my neighboiurs, who are anti bush
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ArmyWife
Lieutenant


Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 218

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The map is nice, but the Iowa Business School's Electronic Market may be an even better indicator.

Here's the current graph of their 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA_jpg.cfm

This paper explains how well the market has predicted the winners over the years:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf

Scroll down to page 10 to see a graph of the accuracy of this market tool in various elections. It looks excellent at predicting Presidential elections.
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lrb111
Captain


Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 508

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more kerry lies bout being in the "center", the more he loses his base. Also , the more people that are actually in the center that will go bush. Since he is the one with the experience.
Kerry can't win going left, and more in the center are seeing he isn't mentally stable enough.

Absentee voting gets mailed out in Oregon Monday, and there are folks whose votes area affected by the polls. Absentee may have started in other places already. I believe overseas military has started, not sure.
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sniper
Seaman Recruit


Joined: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 21

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would also question this poll, but in the opposite. Illinois is shown as a strong Kerry Kamp, yet as of yesterday (9/17) all the polls in Illinois show a bare Kerry lead. Now, considering this state is just slightly less Liberal than the PRK, I find that remarkable. At the very least, it gives me hope and the strength to fight for the very last vote I can pull away from the damn Communist.

Bottom line, dont trust any good polling data, fight to the last charge of powder!
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Me#1You#10
Site Admin


Joined: 06 May 2004
Posts: 6503

PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moving to Geedunk as this is largely political.

Thanks
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