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Whacker77
Ensign
Joined: 06 Sep 2004
Posts: 55
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 Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:34 am Post subject: Bush's poll position |
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I know this may sound crazy, but does anyone feel that Bush might be slipping just a bit right now. I don't have any polls to back that up and to the contrary, most battleground states show him in a strong position. But for some reason, I just get the feeling that he might be sliding ever so slightly.
I follow the day to day politics of the race very closely and that may play some factor in my feelings. I'm probably too close to the situation. Most Americans don't follow the nuts and bolts of the campaign like I do and that's probably a good thing. I could just be suffering from election overload with 42 days to go.
Despite being a huge Bush supporter, I just don't have the same confidence I had ten days ago. Don't get me wrong, I still think he has a five or six point lead. I'm just fearful that Bush and his advisors might be running out the clock. They certainly seemed to do that last week at a time when Kerry became much more aggressive.
Even though I feel a bit of worry, I still have hope that most people have tuned out Kerry. He's been all over the place on Iraq and today he said that he's only had one position on Iraq. Obviously, that's comical but not one of the major networks included that comment in tonight's newscasts. That's what worries me. The MSM will pick up on that theme and pronounce that Kerry has been consistent and found his campain legs for the homestrech. Look for more stories about his comeback victory in Mass. against Weld.
Let me know what you think. |
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Navy_Navy_Navy
Admin
Joined: 07 May 2004
Posts: 5777
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:45 am Post subject: |
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Everyone's going to have ups and downs. There are still a lot left in the campaign.
When I'm feeling discouraged, I always feel better when I go to work. I write emails and letters and send links out to the latest stories with my own commentary.
This, too, will pass. Personally, I am pretty confident that Kerry is going dowwwwwn and I feel more strongly about it every time Kerry opens his ignorant mouth.
It's becoming rapidly apparent to the entire country that Kerry can't even run a coherent, cohesive campaign, much less the country. 
_________________
~ Echo Juliet ~
Altering course to starboard - On Fire, Keep Clear
Navy woman, Navy wife, Navy mother |
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Polaris
Rear Admiral
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 626
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:46 am Post subject: |
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Whacker,
You may well be right. However, Rathergate is heating up again and the new SBVT ad is a real killer.
That said, expect some tightening in October. It almost always happens.
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-Polaris
Truth is Beauty |
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lrb111
Captain
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 508
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:47 am Post subject: |
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Seems to me like every time Kerry picks up a head of steam, he runs out of track.
It "might" be a pattern. 
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said Democratic Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "It is inexcusable to mock service and sacrifice."
well, when even the DNC can see it,,,,, then kerry is toast. |
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llano
Seaman
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 157
Location: Llano Estacado
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:49 am Post subject: |
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Last week I had trouble sleeping because one of the alphabet stations had a discussion about two new polls showing it was a dead heat. The next morning I read about the Gallup poll and Bush's big double digit lead and all was well.
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Home in Lubbock Texas, home of the Vietnam Project at Texas Tech University. A place visited frequently by Navy Chief. |
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blue9t3
Admiral
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 1246
Location: oregon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:04 am Post subject: numbers-schmumbers |
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Nope, your just leary and it will go away.
Mr. carville is running this dog and pony show, and you are seeing the effects right now.
In one of the most dispictable acts I have ever seen , kerry bad mouthed a sitting pres. not 30 mins after he gave a major speech to the so called UN.
As of today we havent felt the effects of little johns cheer-leading teams departure(mikey pigmoore), just like cottage cheese grows hair, you will see johns numbers dwindle!
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MOPAR-BUYER |
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CTW
Rear Admiral
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 691
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:11 am Post subject: |
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Ups and downs are indeed part of this. We have to keep our morale up. The last few weeks are critical. Most people who will vote are now just going to work, keeping busy and probably only tuning in at night to check on things. Believe it or not some people haven't decided yet. The rule in politics is to not peak too soon. I think the best is yet to come from the Bush/Cheney team and the SBVT are really on a roll with their message, that hurts Kerry. I too would just like to know Bush has oh 49 states like Reagan did. I too just don't know how I could stand a Kerry win. We have been under attack the last few days with Kerry back on the scene. Just wait for the debates! I find being able to post at this site helps. Birds of a feather... Writing is great therapy. So we can all take a break, a little R&R and then refreshed we can go the distance. CTW
Never Ever Kerry |
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JimRobson
Lieutenant
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 242
Location: Jacksonville FL
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:15 am Post subject: |
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Don't worry about the little wiggles, the trend is your friend. Here's a little chart I have been keeping in Excel, and actually, it is very encouraging. I don't want to debate the value of Rasmussen as compared to any other poll, because they all have similar trajectories. Enjoy!!!
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ETN2 PTF2 (Littlecreek Underwater Demolition Unit 2 1963)
 
http://www.thewebplace.com/ |
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CTW
Rear Admiral
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 691
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:16 am Post subject: |
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Read Brian's post : "Don't try this at home" for a real laugh. I haven't laughed so hard in a really long time. I could hardly read it with the tears of hysterical laughter pouring down my face.  We need more Brian. CTW
Never Ever Kerry |
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dmackto
Rear Admiral
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 719
Location: Florida
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:28 am Post subject: |
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I agree. I was walking out to get the mail and saw a squirrel today run across the road and cracked up thinking about the little psycho squirel of doom. I tried to play it off but I noticed my very tight lipped neighbor frown and furrow her brow at me. That was pretty funny too.
Brain, tell us another story please.
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Deborah
The FROZEN CHICKEN Journal
This is no time for ease and comfort. It is the time to dare and endure.
- Winston Churchill |
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ProudDaughterofVet
Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 340
Location: New York
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:32 am Post subject: |
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He may have slipped a bit..but remember, it is normal. Truthfully? I believe that Bush is ahead by about 6-8. Now Zogby comes out and says it is a dead heat, you know that this will be on all the MSM tomorrow, "Kerry comeback!"..bull cookies. Look at the state by state, go to realclearpolitics..they are the best..and remember, the most important thing? Get the folks out to vote, I am telling you, that the Dems are not fired up..Conservatives, and now with Rathergate, are pumped..I am taking a group of seniors for Bush to the polls myself..yep, me and dad..so keep the faith..and hope Kerry trips all over his enormous ego during the debates..
PD
_________________
"We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
-President George W. Bush
www.timetotakeastand.blogspot.com |
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buffman
LCDR
Joined: 21 Aug 2004
Posts: 437
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:53 am Post subject: |
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Why worry about something you cannot control? Just work hard for the campaign, cheer your guy on, donate when you can, and pray very hard for God to give Pres Bush wisdom. You can't control what another person thinks or how they vote, you most certainly can give them some good info to educate their vote. It is all in God's hands in the end.
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Never Ever Give Up
America First |
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Chuck Z Ombie AC2000
LCDR
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 426
Location: Northern New Jersey
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:00 am Post subject: |
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Bush's bounce has sustained though it isnt riding as high. Zogby is a liberal pollster who uses internet polling and not cold calling . How many grannies out there are on the internet? ;p Anyhoo when i start to think Bush's bounce is going down i look at the state polls. NY NJ and NH are in play. something almost unheard of becuase Gore won NY in 2000 by 25 points and now Bush is within 5.
This might also cheer you up
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6038211/
| Quote: | Kerry making scant progress in crucial states
Polls show Bush faring well in states he narrowly won in 2000By Tom Curry
National affairs writer
MSNBC
Updated: 1:48 p.m. ET Sept. 20, 2004
WASHINGTON - New polling data suggest that Sen. John Kerry has made little headway with voters in six states that President Bush narrowly won in 2000.
If Kerry wins only the states that Democrat Al Gore won in 2000, he will have 260 electoral votes, 10 shy of the number needed to win the White House.
In polling conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for MSNBC and other media in the six states — Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia — Kerry is statistically tied with Bush in only one state, West Virginia, and trails in the others.
Kerry is furthest behind in Arizona, where Bush leads him by 11 percentage points.
With only six full weeks of campaigning left, Kerry faces a difficult task in bringing voters in Republican-leaning states over to his side. So Kerry has invested heavily in Ohio, Nevada and West Virginia in a bid to pry some of the Bush states into his column.
The Bush campaign has not yet agreed to specific dates or formats for televised debates but, if it takes place, the first debate scheduled by the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, in Coral Gables, Fla. on Sept. 30, will be Kerry’s best chance to change the campaign’s momentum.
POLL RESULTS
Data from six key 'red' states
Of the so-called "red" states polled by Mason-Dixon, the one with the biggest electoral clout is Ohio, with 20 electoral votes. Bush carried Ohio in 2000 by 165,000 votes, or 3.5 percent.
In Ohio, the Democrat lags Bush, 42 percent to 49 percent, with seven percent undecided.
Since June 1, Kerry has spent 13 days campaigning in the state. Kerry and his allies ran a television ad barrage in the state last month: Six of their 10 most heavily saturated media markets in the country were in Ohio, according to Nielsen Monitor-Plus and the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.
The Democratic group America Coming Together has also invested heavily in Ohio, with a staff of anti-Bush activists working to register and turn out voters.
The poll of 625 registered Ohio voters was conducted on Sept. 14 and 15. All 625 said that were likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points, the same margin of error for the other Mason-Dixon polls.
Security the top concern
The Ohio poll found that most of those surveyed regard terrorism and national security as the most important issue in deciding their vote this November.
Twenty-seven percent of those surveyed in Ohio said terrorism was the most important issue, while 20 percent said the state of the economy was the most important.
A large majority, 57 percent, of Ohio respondents favored amending the state’s constitution to allow legal recognition only of traditional heterosexual marriages.
Ohio is one of 11 states where proposed state constitutional amendments limiting marriage to man-woman couples are scheduled to be on the ballot on Election Day.
Social conservative leaders expect that those measures will increase turnout among conservative voters and that, in turn, may well benefit Bush.
In Missouri, a state constitutional amendment to limit marriage was approved in an Aug. 3 vote by a landslide, 71 percent.
And on Saturday, Louisiana voters approved a similar state constitutional measure by an even bigger landslide: 78 percent of the vote.
Of the states surveyed by Mason-Dixon, the one where Kerry appears to have the best chance is West Virginia, where he is locked in a statistical tie with Bush.
Job scarcity in West Virginia
The poll suggested that scarcity of jobs is one reason why West Virginia voters may be discontented with the president: 63 percent of West Virginia respondents said jobs in their community were hard to find, while in Ohio 48 percent said jobs were hard to find.
The two states have only slightly different unemployment rates, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with Ohio at 5.8 percent and West Virginia at 5.1 percent in August. The national average unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in August.
In another hotly contested state, New Hampshire, which Bush won by 7,211 votes, or 1.3 percent, last time, the poll shows him with 49 percent to Kerry’s 40 percent.
On Sunday, Bush was to appear at the opening of NASCAR race in Loudon, N.H., followed by a campaign forum in Derry, N.H. Kerry is scheduled to campaign Monday in New York and Tuesday in Florida.
In the traditional bellwether state of Missouri, which Bill Clinton easily carried in 1992 and again in 1996, but which Gore lost by nearly 80,000 votes, Democratic strategists earlier this year had hopes of pulling the state away from Bush, but now appear to be lessening their efforts there.
Kerry trails Bush in Missouri by seven points with nine percent undecided.
Another poll released Friday by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and television station KMOV likewise found Bush with a seven-point edge over Kerry in Missouri.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader does not play much of a factor in the states surveyed by Mason-Dixon. His strongest showing was in New Hampshire where three percent of respondents said they’d vote for him.
Disinterest in Vietnam Era
Another strikingly insignificant factor in the voters’ decisions is the mêlée over what both Bush and Kerry did during the Vietnam War era.
In Ohio, for example, eight of 10 respondents said the rival candidates’ Vietnam-era activities would play no role in deciding which candidate to support. Mason-Dixon found almost identical results in the other six states it surveyed.
One constant in the Mason-Dixon polling in all the states is that roughly seven out of 10 Bush supporters said they supported him because they like him very much.
Many self-identified Kerry supporters, on the other hand, expressed ambivalence about their candidate. In Missouri, for instance, one out of every four Kerry supporters said they were voting for him only because they disliked the other candidates, while 39 percent said they’d vote for Kerry because they like him.
And in Ohio, 31 percent of Kerry supporters said they would vote for him because they disliked the other candidates; 43 percent of Kerry supporters said they were voting for him because they like him.
The Arizona, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia polls were commissioned by MSNBC and Knight-Ridder newspapers.
In Nevada, where both Bush and Kerry have advertised heavily on television stations in Reno and Las Vegas, Bush leads with 50 percent to Kerry's 45 percent, according to a poll done for the Las Vegas Review Journal.
A particular concern to voters there is the Bush administration's decision in 2002 to make a Nevada site, Yucca Mountain, a repository for nuclear waste. Among voters in the Third Congressional District, where Republican incumbent Jon Porter is fighting a closely watched battle with Democratic challenger Tom Gallagher, 63 percent of voters said Bush’s decision to make Yucca Mountain the nuclear waste repository would have no influence on their presidential vote.
In the most recent national survey, a New York Times/CBS News poll published Saturday, Bush leads Kerry among likely voters by nine points, 51 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error in the Times/CBS News poll was plus or minus three percentage points.
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This isnt bad either
If the presidential election were held this week, who would you vote for? * 221996 responses
George W. Bush
59%
John Kerry
39%
Ralph Nader
1%
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John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris) |
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ProudDaughterofVet
Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 340
Location: New York
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:09 am Post subject: |
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..great post, and from messNBC..wow! look, another thing? Zogby's results were from an interactive poll..and we all know that that is definately not worthy of repeat. The Cincinnati Enquirer released a poll that has Bush up by 12% in Ohio..
look at Rush's website, he has the link..
The states are falling for Bush..and yeppers, even here in NY..Bush down by 5 and believe me the local press is really sad..that tells me that we are moving in the shadows toward the light! I can tell you here in NY we are really stepping up the get out the votes to our Reps..and it is working, especially since Dan Blather..
PD
_________________
"We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
-President George W. Bush
www.timetotakeastand.blogspot.com |
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Paul Woll
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 134
Location: California
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| Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2004 7:45 am Post subject: |
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| While the real polls are good for Bush.... I would rather pretend he was down. We need to fight against Kerry until the elections, and then afterwards we need to impress upon Bush to push for more investigations on John Kerry..... As the record needs to be set to rights. |
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