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Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

There are a couple of new polls out today. NBC, Fox, and CBS have all released new numbers in the last two days. In a three-way race, NBC has it 50-46, Fox has it 47-43, and CBS has it 49-41. Gallup also released a new poll for Florida with Bush ahead 48-45.

What do the national polls tell us? First and foremost, Bush has a lead and a decent one. I think they also show differences in how polls are conducted. The weighted party polls have Bush up by 3-4 points (NBC, Fox, Zogby). The polls that allow party affiliation to fluctuate show Bush ahead by about 8 (CBS, ABC, Gallup, Time, Newsweek).

I'm not sure which is best, but I know which I hope is right. Dick Morris believes that the latter is the correct way to poll, but who knows. He has staked a strong viewpoint on this election so he must be sure or he would have no reputation after the fact.

One thing's for sure, Chris Matthews and his ilk will go with the close ones to give themselves hope. I do think that both sets of numbers may start to move after Kerry's leftwing move. His performance to day was disgraceful. He insulted the Iraqi prime minister by saying he had contradicted himself. Outrageous. I wish tomorrow was November 2!

neverforget · Vice Admiral Joined: 18 Jul 2004 Posts: 875

I haven't seen the CBS poll. Was that out today?
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US Army Security Agency
1965-1971

neverforget · Vice Admiral Joined: 18 Jul 2004 Posts: 875

This electoral vote map is very, very bad news for the traitor:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep23p.html
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US Army Security Agency
1965-1971

1riverrun · Posted: Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:42 am Post subject:

Wow I hope that is how it turns out. Just a few more weeks till Bush is back in.
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Make Chicago the 51st state.

RogerRabbit · Posted: Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:00 am Post subject:

The interesting thing is the undecideds have increased.
Dubya's has not decreased so they must be comiming from the left side.

The next logical step from kerry to undecided is undecided to Bush
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"Si vis pacem, para bellum"

CandiM · LCDR Joined: 20 Aug 2004 Posts: 411

I simply cannot express how heartwarming it is to see Illinois in anything other than dark blue--Bottom line, states like Illinois and New York should have been solidly in the bag for Kerry by Memorial Day and, while I'd be surprised if we could pull it off here, New York is definitely in play and he's losing ground to W in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan--

We dare not get cocky, but Kerry's and his whole band of Merry Men ought to be damned worried about now 'cause I don't think the full impact of the Rather/60 Minutes thing has hit yet--I can't even begin to imagine the level of consternation that'll be going on over at that "other" site when that happens--C
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“I haven’t seen anyone milk this much out of a bad boat ride since Gilligan” -- Dennis Miller

eXcel · Seaman Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 174

the only reason that he this isn't 60/40 bush is because the media is covering his butt left and right but theres only so much they can do to keep the truth about everything kerry from coming out.

ocsparky101 · Posted: Fri Sep 24, 2004 3:14 am Post subject: Michigan is in the bag for Bush.

Michigan has tow issues on the ballot which is very benifitial to GW. They have Nader on the ballot and they have the defensive marriage amendment on the ballot. Also the Free Press reported today the discovery of thousands of illegal applications for Voter Registration. The State Attorney General has promised proscutions for campaign violations. It dosen't get any better than this.

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 · Posted: Fri Sep 24, 2004 3:24 am Post subject:

The media is carrying Kerry right now, its so blatantly obvious. They give Kerry 3 times more airtime and blast Bush when he does get it.
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John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

I'm happy about the recent slate of state polls, but I'm stiil not all the way to confident. In my heart I am, but not in my head. I don't want to jinx anything. It will be interesting to see how polls early next week play after Kerry's move to the anti-war left. My guess is it will hurt some.

I don't think we'll see any big moves for now due to the boring debates. I'm no fan of debates because I think they only reinforce preconceived notions. The left will say Kerry won and the right will say Bush won. Honestly, I wish there were no debates. That's unless I could be sure they would hurt Kerry!

Bush certainly did one good thing today in his press conference. For the first time, he told us about the progress that has been made in Iraq. He mentioned the new government, training of the new army, stability in 15 of 18 provinces, training by NATO, and the return of the U.N. It's my opinion that he should have been doing this all along. People want to hear the good and it certainly contrasts well against the gloom and doom of Kerry.

Even though I'm only 27, it's always been my belief that Americans have always been open to the positive message of Iraq. Unfortunately, the President hasn't made the case. He allowed Howard Dean and the media to define it as chaos and nothing more. I think the country will rally to the positive tone because in our hearts we know it was the right thing to do and we want to win.

I really think this message is a winner. Be honest about the situation on the ground but also always tell us about each and every major accomplishment along the way. We've done good things there and it's okay to pat ourselves on the back every once and a while.

bsjracing · Seaman Joined: 03 Sep 2004 Posts: 199

FF1047 · Lieutenant Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 222

National polls are a waste of time. State by state polls are a much better measure since thats how electoral votes are won.

Bush is killing Kerry at this point ... sweet ...
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JJC
USNA class of 1980