View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
3rd gen Navy Lieutenant
Joined: 03 Sep 2004 Posts: 227 Location: Gainesville, Fl.
|
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Doc Jerry,
could please post the source for your analysis of the internals? I seem to have missed it. My wife and I just dissected this "poll" as a piece of unsubstantiated spin. It would be nice to be able to see that we were right. _________________ Warm Regards,
Sean G. Smith,
RN, BSN, EMT-B, U.S. Navy, 1994 - 2003.
BS Biology, Business Administration, Nursing
The Deal with Life: Make decisions based on what you might gain, not on what you may lose.
!!!!!! LET THE WILD RUMPUS BEGIN !!!!!! |
|
Back to top |
|
|
neverforget Vice Admiral
Joined: 18 Jul 2004 Posts: 875
|
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
3rd gen Navy wrote: | Doc Jerry,
could please post the source for your analysis of the internals? I seem to have missed it. My wife and I just dissected this "poll" as a piece of unsubstantiated spin. It would be nice to be able to see that we were right. |
From a post on www.lucianne.com:
>>In the poll from 9/9-9/10 there were 391 republicans, 300 democrats and 278 independents. In the just released poll there are 345 republicans, 364 democrats and 278 independents (according to a poster a realclearpolitics, I couldn't find the data on msnbc). So either newsweek was intentionally inflating republicans in the previous poll so that they could have the comeback story or they are intentionally overstating the democrats for the same reason. Pass this on<< _________________ US Army Security Agency
1965-1971 |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Doc Jerry Commander
Joined: 28 May 2004 Posts: 339
|
Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:09 pm Post subject: |
|
|
My pleasure:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/index.html
or just keyword: Real Clear Politics.
Also, check out what the sports bettors and traders are saying. They still have Bush up by a healthy margin. Remember, these guys are betting their hard earned money. I heard Hugh Hewitt referencing these guys a few times. You can see that at:
http:/tradesports.com/
Medics, we're there when you need us. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
twicearound PO2
Joined: 02 Sep 2004 Posts: 362 Location: San Antonio
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
BE ENCOURAGE. LET OUR HEARTS NOT BE TROUBLED
DRUDGE
LA TIMES POLL SUNDAY: Bush's favorability rating among debate viewers actually improved slightly (although within the survey's margin of error). Before debate, 51% of watchers viewed Bush favorably, 49% unfavorably; after, numbers were 52% and 47%... _________________ twicearound |
|
Back to top |
|
|
nathan roland Ensign
Joined: 27 Aug 2004 Posts: 57
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 1:13 am Post subject: Polls |
|
|
To me, one thing is certain about polls and the MSM...they can sway the outcome of an election. If we hear repeatedly in the MSM that "The Polls" show our candidate so far behind they cannot win...we may not vote. If we are told by the MSM that "The Polls" show the race is over while voting places are still open...we may not vote. If the MSM repeats hourly and daily until the election their nit-picking negative portrayals of our candidate...we may change our vote. How easily the many can be discouraged by the few. Don't wilt...others see Kerry for what he is too. Don't go wobbly...convince your friends to vote for Bush.
I keep hearing and reading reports that Kerry was RESOLUTE in the debate and very clear about his positions...shouldn't be a surprise to anyone! Hide and Watch Kerry has always been RESOLUTE and clear on each of his 11 different positions! Let's see what he says this week. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
shawa CNO
Joined: 03 Sep 2004 Posts: 2004
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 1:34 am Post subject: |
|
|
When this poll first broke, I went into a panic. OOHHH NOOO!!
Then I said to myself, consider the source!
Newsweek is to newsmagazines what CBS is to TV news.
All Libs--big Kerry KoolAid drinkers!
Then I saw how they weighted the previous poll to show Bush UP big
and then weighted the post debate poll the other way--obviously
for the purpose of launching the BIG COMEBACK.
All Propaganda and Manipulation!
I will wait to see more respectable polls before I let myself
get rattled. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
oasis Lieutenant
Joined: 21 Aug 2004 Posts: 201 Location: Florida, want some sun? LoL!
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
Hello,
President Bush and PM Blair liberated many people in Iraq. _________________ -Oasis
Please donate to the.. RED CROSS
Last edited by oasis on Wed Oct 06, 2004 3:46 am; edited 1 time in total |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Nomorelies Vice Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 977 Location: Texas
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:22 am Post subject: |
|
|
Newsweek is pulling a trick. Read what Ijust found on
http://www.powerlineblog.com
Quote: |
UPDATE: Reader Meg Kreikemeier points out that according to RealClearPolitics, Newsweek's most recent poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 independents. This compares to Newsweek's published data for their most recent prior poll, which showed President Bush with a comfortable lead: 391 Republicans,
300 Democrats and 270 independents. Yes, if you drop 46 Republicans and add 64 Democrats, you will get considerably better results for the Democratic nominee. This is a good reminder of why poll data always need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially until you see the underlying data.
My point about the Newsweek poll, however, was not that it was right, but that it and others like it will be the basis for a media effort to give the Kerry campaign momentum going down the stretch. |
I suggest you read the entire article. Rasmussen still has Bush ahead. _________________ Nomorelies Make a donation HERE |
|
Back to top |
|
|
llano Seaman
Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 157 Location: Llano Estacado
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
If Bush lets Kerry spout off like the last debate without putting up any kind of rebuttals then the race will not be close. _________________ Home in Lubbock Texas, home of the Vietnam Project at Texas Tech University. A place visited frequently by Navy Chief. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
bach04 Lieutenant
Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 212
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
llano wrote: | If Bush lets Kerry spout off like the last debate without putting up any kind of rebuttals then the race will not be close. |
I really hope that Bush et al will change strategies and come out swinging next time. I can understand that they want to portray Bush as an "ordinary kinda guy" to connect to voters but there are many "undecided" or "leaning" Americans who preferred "style" and they will foolishly vote for style over substance. The most frustrating thing was that Bush did not fully take advantage of Kerry's atrocious records and shred him to pieces that night. Bush can be the nice guy all he wants after the election, but he must be more aggressive next time. After all, the future of this nation is totally at stakes. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
PC PO3
Joined: 29 Aug 2004 Posts: 257 Location: Southern California
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:05 am Post subject: Stock Market |
|
|
According to Jim Stack the DOW30 performance for the two months prior to the election is a good indicator of who will win. If the DOW is up for Sept and Oct, the incumbent party won 15 of 16 elections since 1900. If the Dow is down the incumbent lost in 9 of 10 elections. The DOW was at 10174 on 8/31/04.
I still think the market being up so big the day after the debates is very positive for GWB.
Just remember how hard it is to make money in the stock market, it acts much differently than you think it should. Hence, the crowd is saying Kerry won the debate, the market knows otherwise.
How many of you would have bet that the market would have had a down day on Friday after seeing the debates? Most of you right?
Now is the time to get tougher. GWB will win this. It is not possible for Kerry to win. He is a loser. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
msindependent Vice Admiral
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 891 Location: Colorado
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:13 am Post subject: |
|
|
The first thing I looked for friday was the stock market report. They sure felt that W did okay. I seem to remember one of the bulls and bears guy saying something about all W had to do was avoid a hugh goof in the debates. Be sure and protest all this msm spin, it's up to us folks and we can do it. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
ProudDaughterofVet Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 340 Location: New York
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
I have an idea..lets just NOT look at these blasted things anymore. They are making my head spin. The absolute most important thing..VOTE, get your friends to VOTE and volunteer to get out the VOTE. I, for one, am done watching each and every poll..
Now...as someone who used to do this for a living..Bush did suffer a bit, but once the second debate show Edwards to be a inexperienced puppet of the left, who knows nothing..and Bush gets second crack at it, answering peeps questions which he is great at..I have a feeling it will be okay. close, but okay..getting out the vote is the KEY..and we will
Take care my friends..we will be okay, and maybe need a break from the polls, JMO..
PD _________________ "We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
-President George W. Bush
www.timetotakeastand.blogspot.com |
|
Back to top |
|
|
ProudDaughterofVet Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 340 Location: New York
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
I have an idea..lets just NOT look at these blasted things anymore. They are making my head spin. The absolute most important thing..VOTE, get your friends to VOTE and volunteer to get out the VOTE. I, for one, am done watching each and every poll..
Now...as someone who used to do this for a living..Bush did suffer a bit, but once the second debate show Edwards to be a inexperienced puppet of the left, who knows nothing..and Bush gets second crack at it, answering peeps questions which he is great at..I have a feeling it will be okay. close, but okay..getting out the vote is the KEY..and we will
Take care my friends..we will be okay, and maybe need a break from the polls, JMO..
PD _________________ "We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
-President George W. Bush
www.timetotakeastand.blogspot.com |
|
Back to top |
|
|
ProudDaughterofVet Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 340 Location: New York
|
Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
I have an idea..lets just NOT look at these blasted things anymore. They are making my head spin. The absolute most important thing..VOTE, get your friends to VOTE and volunteer to get out the VOTE. I, for one, am done watching each and every poll..
Now...as someone who used to do this for a living..Bush did suffer a bit, but once the second debate show Edwards to be a inexperienced puppet of the left, who knows nothing..and Bush gets second crack at it, answering peeps questions which he is great at..I have a feeling it will be okay. close, but okay..getting out the vote is the KEY..and we will
Take care my friends..we will be okay, and maybe need a break from the polls, JMO..
PD _________________ "We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
-President George W. Bush
www.timetotakeastand.blogspot.com |
|
Back to top |
|
|
|