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Why Kerry failed to gain after debate: My theory

 
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Doc Jerry
Commander


Joined: 28 May 2004
Posts: 339

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:35 pm    Post subject: Why Kerry failed to gain after debate: My theory Reply with quote

After reviewing the newest polls that show Bush still in the lead, I think I may know why.

The criticism of Bush in the debate was that he was lethargic and did not attack Kerry when several opportunities arose. In other words, Bush failed to counteracttack. However, I believe the viewing public connected the dots for Bush in their own minds. More of the electorate now know Kerry better (i.e., from the Swift Boat Ads). And the adage appears to hold true: the more you see or hear Kerry, the more you dislike him. In other words, Kerry's presentation was sharper, but it made absolutely no difference, because more people now know he's a fake, phoney and fraud. Hence, his numbers did not move much (esp. the internals. They remained about the same as they were before the debate).

Now whether the prez and company can continue to rely on the perceptions people have of Kerry is the question. I don't believe Bush can be as lackluster as he was last week. Neverthless, it might not make much difference unless Bush really appears weak. It's his strength with national security that is supporting his numbers. He has to continue to show strength in that area.

It also now appears the Kerry campaign celebrated a bit too early. They have to be scratching their heads at this moment examining the new poll numbers.

What do you think?

Cool Medics, we're there when you need us.
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buffman
LCDR


Joined: 21 Aug 2004
Posts: 437

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's like this older African American lady told me today, "There's something about Kerry that just doesn't sound right, don't know what it is, he sounds ...phony! And I am not a Republican, he just sounds like a liar".
That statement made my day and of course I pounced on the opportunity to gain another undecided vote for Bush!
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Doc Jerry
Commander


Joined: 28 May 2004
Posts: 339

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buffman:

Your story supports my theory. Let's hope this theory holds up for the next 29 days.
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kmudd
Master Chief Petty Officer


Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 825

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree. Kerry comes off like a slick car saleman. One who is willing to say anything to get you buy .He has no core convictions so when he speaks about an issue it is like a robot just spitting out a talking point. Bush gives off the feeling that he has real human feelings.When he talked of talking to the mother of the soldier who was killed you could tell Bush was moved and had real feelings. Kerry was more like Mike Dukacas who when asked about his wife being murdered seemed not to have any feelings about his own wife. Bush is likable ,Kerry is not.
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CTW
Rear Admiral


Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 691

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All Kerry did was throw out a litany of things he thinks are wrong. Just gripe gripe gripe. He was all over the place. He gave the undecideds NO positive plan to do anything. President Bush made it clear Kerry was wrong on several of his points. So any thinking person was not persuaded that he was presidential but rather just a slick guy saying anything to discredit a leader. It plays bad.

And President Bush had to pick the most important lie to set straight. As kimmymac said President Bush had 45 minutes to try to nail jello to the wall. I was not disappointed by his performance...if he had tried to attack he could have made a huge mistake and lost all the marbles.

Let's face it: President Bush got ambushed by this farce of a debate! He was in democrat territory and the cards were stacked.
Just wait. The worm turns. CTW

Never Ever Kerry
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Endaar
Ensign


Joined: 01 Oct 2004
Posts: 73
Location: Long Island, NY

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Kerry comes off like a slick car saleman. One who is willing to say anything to get you buy


That's really not a fair comparison at all, and it's insulting to the salesman. Plus, salesmen eventually have to answer for their lies.

Endaar
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JCJR
Lt.Jg.


Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:59 am    Post subject: Re: Why Kerry failed to gain after debate: My theory Reply with quote

Doc Jerry wrote:
After reviewing the newest polls that show Bush still in the lead, I think I may know why.

The criticism of Bush in the debate was that he was lethargic and did not attack Kerry when several opportunities arose. In other words, Bush failed to counteracttack. However, I believe the viewing public connected the dots for Bush in their own minds. More of the electorate now know Kerry better (i.e., from the Swift Boat Ads). And the adage appears to hold true: the more you see or hear Kerry, the more you dislike him. In other words, Kerry's presentation was sharper, but it made absolutely no difference, because more people now know he's a fake, phoney and fraud. Hence, his numbers did not move much (esp. the internals. They remained about the same as they were before the debate).

Now whether the prez and company can continue to rely on the perceptions people have of Kerry is the question. I don't believe Bush can be as lackluster as he was last week. Neverthless, it might not make much difference unless Bush really appears weak. It's his strength with national security that is supporting his numbers. He has to continue to show strength in that area.

It also now appears the Kerry campaign celebrated a bit too early. They have to be scratching their heads at this moment examining the new poll numbers.

What do you think?

Cool Medics, we're there when you need us.


Hi Doc

It depends on what individual viewers are expecting from a debate.

If a viewer is ignorant of the real world (the 'undecided' voters)-- Perhaps Kerry's heart-felt eloquent argument to "cancel the nuclear bunker busters and anti-missile systems" might be persuasive.

Folks already sympathetic to these concepts (liberal democrats) wouldn't need an eloquent speech to be convinced. A crude stammering argument would work just as well.

Folks who might say to themselves, "Hmmm, nuclear bunker-busters and anti-missile systems might be nice have available, JUST IN CASE."-- Such folks don't need an eloquent counter-argument by Bush. Just hearing Kerry spout such nonsense is sufficient to toggle alarm bells.

Bush is a weak orator. Weak in the past, weak in the recent debate, likely a weak orator for the forseeable future. This ain't news. His daddy was the same way. It don't necessarily mean Bush is dumb. I ain't a great orator either, but didn't fall off the tomato truck yesterday (GRIN).

Folks who already agree with Kerry, would never be swayed by Bush regardless of Bush's erudite sophistry (or lack thereof).

For folks who don't agree with Kerry, Bush doesn't even need to make a coherent counter-argument (though it gets embarrasing when Bush doesn't).

The important persuadable audience is the ignorant undecided. Since they know so little of the real world, the fanciest speechifier might win the day. Unfortunately, with things so evenly balanced between parties, the ignorant undecided will DECIDE this election.

It really would be nice if Bush could coherently assemble a couple of sentences in front of an audience of 60 million. But that ain't gonna happen, so the best we can hope, is that the ignorant undecided are not completely clueless (GRIN).
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