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Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

The AP released a new poll this morning showing Kerry with a 50-46 lead over Bush. They only polled in the head-to-head race. Ralph Nader was not included in the survey. I guess if they had the numbers might look slightly better for Bush, but not much.

Although Rasmussen and Zogby show Bush with a one and two point lead today, the AP poll hurts. It's the first non-tracking poll released with a descent amount of time since the debate. Despite my hopes, I think Bush's perception has been hurt over the last week.

Right now, the momentum for Bush is not good. In fact I don't think there's any despite Cheney's good debate. Honestly, I'm amazed that so many people appeared to have been swayed by one debate. If the electorate is this wishy washy, then it could tough in the final three weeks for Bush.

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 5:36 pm Post subject:

whacker get a grip. AP is run by Kerry.
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John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

Marist released poll today as well showing Bush with a three point lead and that poll never had Bush up by many even during his zenith. Also, a new Quinnipiac poll has Bush up by 7 in Florida, while a new Mason Dixon poll has Bush up by 4 in Florida.

Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

I know, I know, but it still feeds the perception that Bush is slipping. A week ago today, most believed the election was all but over. Today it's dofight with Kerry gaining.

Bush can still regain momentum in the last two debates, but right now everything's going against him. I think everyone would agree that the last week hasn't been what we had hoped. I would like to ignore the numbers too, but that's not responsible.

One week ago: Bush 51
Kerry 45

Today: Bush 49
Kerry 47

That's just my guess.

Steve Z · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 5:51 pm Post subject: AP poll

Has anyone been able to get the internals on the AP/Ipsos poll? If they called more Democrats than Republicans, therein lies the answer.

But I sincerely hope that President Bush is doing his homework, preparing himself for tomorrow's debate!

In his first debate, when Kerry mentioned that the only countries to join the coalition in Iraq were Great Britain and Australia, Bush said, "You forgot Poland."

In tomorrow's debate, when Kerry will inevitably say that "this President has the worst record on jobs since Herbert Hoover", I'm hoping that President Bush will reply, "You forgot Jimmy Carter", then go into some detail about how Ronald Reagan rescued America from Carter's policies (tax cuts, military buildup), and how his own policies resemble those of Reagan!
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The traitor will crater!

openfish24 · Lt.Jg. Joined: 18 Aug 2004 Posts: 140

I refuse to believe that america will elect the traitor Kerry to be president.

Get out there and do your part

Educate america

coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

Steve Z · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:22 pm Post subject: Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

The Real Clear Politics website shows a composite of many polls. Among polls including Ralph Nader taken after the 9/30/04 debate, there is only one poll showing Kerry leading (Newsweek), 3 polls showing ties (CBS, Gallup, ARG), and 6 polls showing Bush leading (Zogby, Marist, ABC, Fox, ICR, Pew). Average Bush lead = 1.8%. Of these polls, only one (Zogby) includes data taken after the Cheney-Edwards debate, which is bound to help Bush.

Rasmussen, which takes daily head-to-head polls (without Nader) showed a 0.8% improvement for Bush with 1/3 of the polling after the Cheney-Edwards debate--there might be more over the next two days.

Bush hasn't lost yet, but he was MUCH too complacent during the first debate. He needs to take the fight to the enemy, just as he did in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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The traitor will crater!

coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

bsjracing · Seaman Joined: 03 Sep 2004 Posts: 199

I think it's more important to look at the individual polls in the swing states than the overall picture. I mean, if the polls are all taken in NY for instance, well then yes, maybe it swings Kerry. But the Electoral college is where this election is won. Not on the overall average. Geez it's only been 4 years since we learned that.
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A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

If you're going to burn the US flag, at least have the decency to wrap yourself in it first.

msindependent · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:30 pm Post subject:

I don't look for much of a bump in the polls after debate #2 unless someone messes up badly and it's repeated over and over in the news. Tons of people are not going to watch, it's friday night and people are not going to be home.

rparrott21 · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:42 pm Post subject:

Bush in a landslide..... Laughing

knightowl77 · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:19 pm Post subject:

rparrott21 · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:25 pm Post subject:

I think he will be charged...needs to let his brother do the hurricane relief things and get some rest....if he does like Cheney and just sticks to facts and doesn't repeat himself...Kerry is done once and for all....

greenvale · Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:27 pm Post subject:

The report just out that WMD were found..and the media and Kerry jumping on it like fleas on a dog are making anything Bush says look like he's standing alone on an island. I guess no one wants to admit the fact that Sadam had the means, and the desire to begin his programs again once the inspectors were out of the country.
I guess what makes me so sad ... our troops are doing such a good job..the families and friends here at home are being led to believe that the fight isn't necessary...and their lives and efforts are for nothing..I am livid Twisted Evil

Bush and this country need some good news...a real October event!
God Bless America,
Greenvale