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bach04
Lieutenant
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 212
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 Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: AP/Ipsos poll out today |
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| Whacker77 wrote: | The AP released a new poll this morning showing Kerry with a 50-46 lead over Bush. They only polled in the head-to-head race. Ralph Nader was not included in the survey. I guess if they had the numbers might look slightly better for Bush, but not much.
Although Rasmussen and Zogby show Bush with a one and two point lead today, the AP poll hurts. It's the first non-tracking poll released with a descent amount of time since the debate. Despite my hopes, I think Bush's perception has been hurt over the last week.
Right now, the momentum for Bush is not good. In fact I don't think there's any despite Cheney's good debate. Honestly, I'm amazed that so many people appeared to have been swayed by one debate. If the electorate is this wishy washy, then it could tough in the final three weeks for Bush. |
Relax whacker. You have been coming to this forum and posting nothing but gloom and doom stuff that you find on the internet. I am suspicious of your motivation when you have been quoting nothing but few polls with selective outcomes when you dont' even know the party breakdown, etc. people here are going to pursue Kerry for his treasonous acts no matter what the polls show, and frankly speaking, unlike you, I have faith that the American people will pull through for our president. |
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rparrott21
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 760
Location: Mckinney, Texas
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Anyone who doesn't believe that Saddam was one, if not the worlds most dangerous terrorist, is in complete denial.... |
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fr11
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 154
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:06 pm Post subject: |
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| It's important to remember that Reagan lost the first debate to Mondale in '84. He then went on to win the next 2 debates and slaughtered Mondale in the election (only MN and DC went to Mondale). |
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Whacker77
Ensign
Joined: 06 Sep 2004
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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| I just have too much time on my hands when I'm not flying. I just get too caught up in the day to day polls. I should know better but I just worried about the momentum. He's in a precarious position and I want him to succeed. Have no doubt, I'm conservative Republican for life! |
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Scott
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 24 May 2004
Posts: 1603
Location: Massachusetts
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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Would everyone please take a deep breath. Thanks. I know that the tension is increasing in this election, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. However, bashing other members doesn't help. And the fourteenth beatitude might be "Blessed are the Pessimists, for they shall not be disappointed," but that doesn't help either.
Thank you. We now return you to our regularly scheduled program. 
_________________
Bye bye, Boston Straggler! |
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USAF66-70
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 136
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| The latest Tradesports futures reflect Bush over Kerry at 62/38. It’s market driven and, as I understand it, has been a better predictor than polls. |
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thrawn21
Seaman Recruit
Joined: 28 Aug 2004
Posts: 33
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| USAF66-70 wrote: | | The latest Tradesports futures reflect Bush over Kerry at 62/38. It’s market driven and, as I understand it, has been a better predictor than polls. |
And right after the debates, as was stated by Larry Kudlow on NRO, the Tradesports futures were Bush 60, Kerry 40. So, according to Tradesports, Bush went up a little after the Presidental debates (perhaps due to the VP debate?)
I'm going to quit worrying excessively about this election. It's not conductive to schoolwork and, quite frankly, I'm a bit young to be having ulcers.
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"Anyone can make an error. But that error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it" - Grand Admiral Thrawn, from the book Heir to the Empire by Timothy Zahn |
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noc
PO1
Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 492
Location: Dublin, CA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Whacker77 wrote: | | I just have too much time on my hands when I'm not flying. I just get too caught up in the day to day polls. I should know better but I just worried about the momentum. He's in a precarious position and I want him to succeed. Have no doubt, I'm conservative Republican for life! |
Fear not. Bush just took away one of Kerry's weapons namely the middle class tax cut. Bush signed into law the extensions and now Kerry has nothing but income tax increases to talk about. So therefore no repeat of what Clinton used to win against his father. Masterful stroke, imo.
Look how much has happened in the last month. It will seem like an eternity until November. Keep your spirits up. Use it to motivate you and those you talk to. Remind others why it is so important to not let up.
I think many people were getting too confident too early anyway. This way apathy won't set in. Besides we should all approach every day like we are down 10 points.
Hey, I'm from California and in the bay area no less. We don't even have a republican congressman here, but I pound away every day. I have managed to change minds of some die hard liberals. It isn't easy. I take a stand because I feel this is the most important election of our times. I could never forgive myself if I don't do everything in my power to support our country, our troops and our president. |
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W.P. Wily
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 101
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| Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:25 am Post subject: |
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In this thread, our member greenvale mentions finding this interesting commentary on the Ap/Ipsos Poll:
About that Ap/Ipsos Poll You’ve Been Hearing About…
http://polipundit.com/
Strangely enough, at this point it seems that there are no internals available for this poll. |
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Kimmymac
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
Posts: 816
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:37 am Post subject: |
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I harken back to the days of yore...
Carter v Reagan: Polls all said it was Carter up by double digits--then it was single digits--then it was Carter by 2 points, or simply "too close to call" On the morning of Nov. 2 they were saying it was Carter by a few points...
Yeah. Well, Reagan won that election in a landslide of historic proportion.
So, even though the OIM (who didn't know that several decades later would be deemed old and irrelevant) refused to acknowledge Reagan's growing grip on the Presidency, he still won.
Just like Bush is gonna win this one.
Hey, Whacker77, for what it is worth, I never mistook you for a troll. I just figured you for a worrier. You're a pilot? If you are, that's excellent! I know that when I fly I would much rather it be with someone who errs on the side of caution than...well...someone like me, for example. Much higher chance of coming back home with a worrier at the controls than with a "oh heqq, we can do this, no prob!" type like me.
Hang in there, it's gonna be okay. |
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Whacker77
Ensign
Joined: 06 Sep 2004
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:48 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the good words. I'm glad to know someone believes me. I am a worrier when the time requires it. Right now I am worried, but I'm still optimistic. Bush just needs to get past this week and reassure his soft voters that he's the man.
By the way, I fly the ERJ-135 and ERJ-145. I'm 27 and a First Officer for a regional airline. |
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Kimmymac
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
Posts: 816
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2004 3:54 am Post subject: |
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And I bet you are a heqq of a pilot, Whacker77. I bet you do all your safety checks, and you don't take anything for granted. Good on you!
27, eh? Say, I have a daughter...oh, never mind, she hates it when I do that.
I am flying to New England tomorrow, and I hate to fly. (It's a control thing.) I hope the pilots of the flights I will be on tomorrow are as cautious as you are! |
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a6502
Ensign
Joined: 13 Sep 2004
Posts: 64
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| Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:42 am Post subject: |
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Tip:
LIE to the pollsters. I do. I have done it both times that I have been polled in this cycle. RAVED about Mr. Kerry. Then went into the head and tossed my lunch.
Here is how I figure it...
If I tell the truth, then the polls will, or may, reflect 'reality', and keep people that I WANT to vote away from the polls - because 'our guy' is WAY UP.
If I lie however, things get more interesting. I get to mess with the heads of several people and groups that I hold in very low esteem. I skew the number mightily because of the low number of people polled - heck, my single response may equate to hundreds of thousands of 'voters'. If the 'other guys' get complacent - better for 'us'.
My deceptive answers are 'amplified' because not only am I not 'voting right', I am 'voting wrong' - so 'our' guy loses my vote, and Satan gets an extra one. Increasing the spread to two points.
Someone on another thread brought up the internet polls, and is urging everybody to mess with them also - I think that is a Damned Fine Idea. Make the polls worthless, and eventually they will go away, which would make for better theatre. Of course, I also favor dueling as a method of settling disputes - I figure that if you are not willing to 'go the distance', then you should probably 'shut the f- up.' (Besides, I would actually enjoy whacking some folks across the face with a chain mail gauntlet.)
So, don't believe the stuff that you see in the polls - there ARE folks like me out there, messing with peoples' heads. But please, do go vote. |
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