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noc PO1
Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 492 Location: Dublin, CA
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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Polaris wrote: | Whacker77,
Relax. Seriously. Yes there has been poll erosion more due to a lack of enthusiasm amoung Bush supporters and renewed enthusiasm among Kerry supporters. If you dig into the internals of the Polls, you will see that.
Given that, you will find I think that Cheney staunched the bleeding. All the polls you cite have date BEFORE the VP Debate.
Furthermore the ABC poll had a +5 point Bush Lead, then a +6 point one, and then a +2 Point one. One of the problems with tracking polls is that every so often (about once per ten days) you get outlier samples.
The concern is valid, but I would wait a couple of days. Seriously. One day does not make a trend on a tracking poll.
I also note that the new ICR Poll (with a really good track record) just came out today, and it puts Bush up by +6.
Finally I note that state-polls tend to be lagging indicators....and there have been some questionable ones released. I also note that the webmaster of electoral-vote.com is a staunch lefty. Normally he is pretty honest....be he has become a lot more partisan lately with how he reports polls.
In short, I would work against Kerry as much as you can (legally of course) and hope that *this* *time*, President Bush gets the job done. If he does, then I think it will be OK.
I note that on the RCP average (a good indicator), Bush still have a +2 lead which is significant if narrower than I like.
-Polaris |
Polaris, I agree and as usual your analysis is spot on. |
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Inatizzy Former Member
Joined: 28 Sep 2004 Posts: 439
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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OK, all you gloom and doomers....cut it out. You won't go to a Kerry website and see them moaning about how bad John Edwards did against Cheney...even though he did terrible. THey will still say he did GREAT.
I agree that perception means alot. Those Dems read this board and other conservative boards and when they see us going on and on about how badly Bush did they are energized by it.
We ARE NOT going to get a fair shake from the MSM and we all know that already. So just forget it. We have to trust the alternative media to get the message out to "fly over" America. And the message IS getting out. Someone said on one of these forums the other day (may have been this one, I can't remember) that they were talking with friends in New Jersey who said that publically they endorse Kerry, but privately they are going to vote for Bush because they really don't trust Kerry to keep America safe. Peer pressure is a strong thing. What matters is what these people do in the privacy of the voting booth when no one else is looking. MOST patriotic Americans WILL vote for Bush even if they are not saying so.
George Bush is going to win in Nov. I personally think it will be a landslide. The MSM has to keep the populace thinking the race is close or nobody would watch the election results and ratings would crater.
The leftist lunatics are only a fringe of our population. They would vote for Hitler himself if he ran on the Democrat ticket. But most of the people in this country are red blooded patriotic conservative AMERICANS who love our country and want it kept safe. They will vote for BUSH.
Keep it positive. NO MATTER WHAT. I don't care if Bush trips over his tongue tomorrow night. We need to come on here and be POSITIVE that he won.
Thank you for letting me rant. [/b] |
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wednesdaychild PO3
Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 276
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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I support and endorese( lol) the above statemnts.
U are so right, no matter haow bad things look, publically the dems put on a good face b/c they knowthe kMSM is coveringit. We have Rsuh, Sean and a host of othes on our side. And FOX is at least givng us air time. Newt Ginggrick(sp) says it will not be close, despite what manythinkk. There are laws regarding recounts, I believe u have to be prety close to get one. But of ourse theat won't stop them from challenging the accuracy of the votes. The far left is running the MSM and they like to win, no matter how they do it.
So stiff upper lip and lets move on-pun intended. _________________ "...for the good of believing in life after birth..."
Jim Steinman |
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Bystander PO3
Joined: 25 Aug 2004 Posts: 271 Location: MI
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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I for one am VERY upbeat about the coming election! And why, you may ask? Well--I was one of the fortunates who got to go out to Farmington Hills MI yesterday to see/hear our president! It was worth every minute of standing in the hot sun for over 2 hours waiting for him to speak to us. One of our local TV stations estimated the crowd at 14,000. He spoke optimistically and as usual, made one heck of a lot of sense. He asked for our help to give him four more years. As soon as I got home, I started. I have two neighbors who lean GOP but have been wishy-washy about voting because they work, the lines will be long at the polls, etc. Contacted them both about voting absentee. They agreed it would help. Today I called our City Clerk and requested absentee ballots be sent to both of them. Someone else calling for the ballot is perfectly legal. As soon as they receive them, I'll be on their backs like a wet shirt to make sure they exercise this most precious right.
Doom and gloom? I don't need it, I never had it, and Cash 'n' Carry will never be our president if I have anything to do about it! _________________ No one can make you feel inferior without your consent.
..................................Eleanor Roosevelt |
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Inatizzy Former Member
Joined: 28 Sep 2004 Posts: 439
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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Bystander wrote: | I for one am VERY upbeat about the coming election! And why, you may ask? Well--I was one of the fortunates who got to go out to Farmington Hills MI yesterday to see/hear our president! It was worth every minute of standing in the hot sun for over 2 hours waiting for him to speak to us. One of our local TV stations estimated the crowd at 14,000. He spoke optimistically and as usual, made one heck of a lot of sense. He asked for our help to give him four more years. As soon as I got home, I started. I have two neighbors who lean GOP but have been wishy-washy about voting because they work, the lines will be long at the polls, etc. Contacted them both about voting absentee. They agreed it would help. Today I called our City Clerk and requested absentee ballots be sent to both of them. Someone else calling for the ballot is perfectly legal. As soon as they receive them, I'll be on their backs like a wet shirt to make sure they exercise this most precious right.
Doom and gloom? I don't need it, I never had it, and Cash 'n' Carry will never be our president if I have anything to do about it! |
BOO-YAH |
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rb325th Admiral
Joined: 21 Aug 2004 Posts: 1334
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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Polls are only as good as the questions asked and who is asked. They are not always reliable and are easily influenced. The fact is this people, the MSM is going to elevate Kerry as much as they possibly can. Wether by posing biased Polls or just continuing their Negative Reporting of the WoT and Iraq.
No Bias in the Media? Please!!
Keep the faith, keep talking to other people about Kerry outside this Forum, and do not let the MSM Slide when you see them doing their usual biased "reporting". _________________ U.S. Army 1983-1995, 11C1P/11H2P NBTDT |
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USAF66-70 Lt.Jg.
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 136
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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Fear not bros. The latest Tradesports futures reflect Bush over Kerry at 62/38. It’s market driven and, as I understand it, has been a better predictor than polls. But of course it’s not over until Mrs. Edwards sings. |
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Armybrat/Armymom Commander
Joined: 27 Aug 2004 Posts: 335 Location: Central Texas
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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Ann Richards was a *itch then and is still a *itch. And the same goes for her daughter who has a website dedicated to countering the politicking of the radical right. That's me folks. |
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