SwiftVets.com

[JimRobson]

Applying the principles of Technical Analysis of Stock Charts, to the Rasmussen daily data, we are seeing a positive trend change in the Bush numbers. Having broken a minor downward trend, we have now resumed the positive climb. Todays down tick is normal and to be expected since a trendline break is often followed by a test of that trendline. After a day or two of testing this trendline, a continuation of the advance should resume. If this trendline is broken to the downside, however, we may have some more work to do.

This analysis should not be used for betting on futures or any other financial activity. I am definitely not a professional and even though I follow time tested principles, I MAY BE WRONG.


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ETN2 PTF2 (Littlecreek Underwater Demolition Unit 2 1963)

http://www.thewebplace.com/

[Steve Z]

I'm not sure that the statistical analyses used for stock prices can be applied to presidential voting preferences.

One trend I noticed is that Bush's poll numbers went down, and Kerry's went up, after their first debate, reaching a closest approach on the last day which did not include polling after the Cheney-Edwards debate. After that debate, Bush's numbers went up, and Kerry's went down. After the second Bush-Kerry debate, both candidates seemed to lose an equal number of votes (to undecided?), although it's probably too early to see a trend.

Vice President Cheney may have saved his boss' (and his own) job with his terrific performance against Edwards. Bush did much better in his second debate than in the first, but Kerry is a much stronger adversary than Edwards, so the result in the polls is about a draw.
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The traitor will crater!

[JimRobson]

Steve Z: I appreciate your thoughts on this subject. One of the tenants of "Technical Analysis" (Chart interpretation) is that all of the known information, whether public or not, is contained in the chart. I know that not all agree, and that's what makes a horse race. Technical analysis is used on single stocks, as well as Indices and "Averages". It tends to show the gross sum of a universe of information.

My main goal in posting these charts is to test this theory. Such a test can only be done in real time and in the end the efficacy can be clearly seen.

My hypothesis is based on personal experience of working with charts for over 25 years, and a belief that they can be used to create valid predictive results with better than chance results. Otherwise see my disclaimer.

This analysis should not be used for betting on futures or any other financial activity. I am definitely not a professional and even though I follow time tested principles, I MAY BE WRONG.
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ETN2 PTF2 (Littlecreek Underwater Demolition Unit 2 1963)

http://www.thewebplace.com/

[blue9t3]

Jim,
I agree, I wish I had some mad money. The disclaimer is a good idea because my neighbor thought he had a handle the charts, now he works two jobs while licking his wounds!
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MOPAR-BUYER

[Tacan70UDN]

Jim - I'm not a chart expert. I notice that the blue "kerry" line has crossed the trend line in a downward direction on this latest chart. Would that be considered a negative breakout?? Thanks.

[JimRobson]

Tacan70UDN: Yes, it would. I covered that in yesterday's post. Good catch.
http://www2.swiftvets.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=12519
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ETN2 PTF2 (Littlecreek Underwater Demolition Unit 2 1963)

http://www.thewebplace.com/

[Whacker77]

Promise me you'll post this updated graph everyday. It's really interesting and I'm glad you do it.

[JimRobson]

Thanks. I'll try.
_________________
ETN2 PTF2 (Littlecreek Underwater Demolition Unit 2 1963)

http://www.thewebplace.com/