Steve Z
Rear Admiral
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT
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 Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:30 pm Post subject: Rasmussen Poll |
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It was probably due to weekend polling. Since the latest "tie" is a three-day average over Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, Monday's polling probably showed Bush in the lead, probably by 1 to 2 points.
Other polls have shown that Bush has big leads among married people, Kerry leads among single people. They call on a weekday evening, they have a chance of getting a married person or a single person proportional to the population. On weekends, more married people are taking the family to recreational events, while more single people might be at home waiting for a date, and end up talking to Rasmussen. As an example, Bush took a huge dive on Father's Day (when dads and their wives are out celebrating) but popped back up to his previous level when Father's Day polling fell out of the average.
I've heard that Rasmussen uses automated polling--probably one of those "press 1 for George W. Bush, press 2 for John F. Kerry" types of menus. I wonder how they screen out children who might answer the phone, and be old enough to understand and answer the questions, even though they're too young to vote?
A live pollster might ask a child, "May I talk to your Mom or Dad, please", but could an automat screen out children's "votes"?
Food for thought.
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The traitor will crater! |
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