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Weird CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll results

 
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GoEagles
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Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 147
Location: Philadelphia

PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 2:50 pm    Post subject: Weird CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll results Reply with quote

FL: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 49, Bush 46
OH: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 50, Kerry 46
IA: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 48, Kerry 46
MN: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 52, Bush 44
WI: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 52, Kerry 44

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/daily_polls.html

This would give Kerry FL, OH and MN
Bush would get PA, IA and WI - total of 38 ev's, which would get him to 270.
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coolhand
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Joined: 26 Aug 2004
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Location: MA/RI

PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That poll is a joke. Read Mathew Dowd explanation of "allocation". Based on history, they give Kerry 90% of the undecided vote. But that is a fallacy, there is an assumption that undecided go to the challenger, but that is not always true. Furthermore, security and war are not always issues in past campaigns. There are similar studies that show that undecides are less likely to jump ship during wartime. Their weighting methods suck.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-10-31-poll-x_x.htm
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Nathanyl
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm disappointed that Gallup let their name be attached to this garbage. This was totally manipulated by CNN and USA today. Gallup's orginal numbers had Bush in the lead and then I believe that CNN and USA Today decided to allocate the undecided to Kerry.
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Steve Z
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Joined: 20 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:03 pm    Post subject: Undecided Reply with quote

Wouldn't it be more reasonable to either not count the undecideds, or allocate half of them to each candidate?

If Kerry couldn't convince these people to vote for him after 8 months of campaigning, how would he convince 90% of them on the last day?
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joeshero
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Weird CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll results Reply with quote

GoEagles wrote:

FL: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 49, Bush 46
OH: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 50, Kerry 46
IA: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 48, Kerry 46
MN: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 52, Bush 44
WI: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 52, Kerry 44

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/daily_polls.html

This would give Kerry FL, OH and MN
Bush would get PA, IA and WI - total of 38 ev's, which would get him to 270.



Take for example Florida. How comes it changes by at least 7 point within 3-4 days. About 4 days ago, the same poll gave Bush 4% point lead. And if you notice, 3-4 days ago LA Times' poll gave Bush 6 point lead in Florida.

There is no major scandal in the White House. There is no hurricane in Bush's camp. And there is no angel in Kerry's camp. It doesn't make sense at all.
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MACVJOE
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Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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Location: Texan in Michigan

PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NUMBER 1 never trust a Monday poll.

Us good old Republicans and good Demos are not at home on weekend, we are at sporting events, family outings, church, NASCAR, and other social events. You will always see a drop in polls on Mondays. Poor old left sided demos are at home feeling sorry for themselves.
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GoEagles
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Joined: 14 Sep 2004
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Location: Philadelphia

PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good point about the 90% number, I'm not buying that either. Here is the really weird part. Take a look at the latest Wisconsin polls - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#wi

Zogby | 10/28-10/31 | 44 51 | Kerry +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/27-30 | 52 44 | Bush +8

There is something seriously wrong when two major polls have a 15-point discrepancy.
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