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GoEagles

FL: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 49, Bush 46
OH: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 50, Kerry 46
IA: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 48, Kerry 46
MN: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Kerry 52, Bush 44
WI: CNN/USAT/Gallup - Bush 52, Kerry 44

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/daily_polls.html

This would give Kerry FL, OH and MN
Bush would get PA, IA and WI - total of 38 ev's, which would get him to 270.
_________________
"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04

Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry

coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

That poll is a joke. Read Mathew Dowd explanation of "allocation". Based on history, they give Kerry 90% of the undecided vote. But that is a fallacy, there is an assumption that undecided go to the challenger, but that is not always true. Furthermore, security and war are not always issues in past campaigns. There are similar studies that show that undecides are less likely to jump ship during wartime. Their weighting methods suck.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-10-31-poll-x_x.htm

Nathanyl · PO3 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 280

I'm disappointed that Gallup let their name be attached to this garbage. This was totally manipulated by CNN and USA today. Gallup's orginal numbers had Bush in the lead and then I believe that CNN and USA Today decided to allocate the undecided to Kerry.
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Bill Hershey
www.worldwar4.net

Steve Z · Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:03 pm Post subject: Undecided

Wouldn't it be more reasonable to either not count the undecideds, or allocate half of them to each candidate?

If Kerry couldn't convince these people to vote for him after 8 months of campaigning, how would he convince 90% of them on the last day?
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The traitor will crater!

joeshero · Commander Joined: 30 Aug 2004 Posts: 321 Location: Midwest

MACVJOE · Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:22 pm Post subject:

NUMBER 1 never trust a Monday poll.

Us good old Republicans and good Demos are not at home on weekend, we are at sporting events, family outings, church, NASCAR, and other social events. You will always see a drop in polls on Mondays. Poor old left sided demos are at home feeling sorry for themselves.
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Retired 86 Army
MACV Upper Delta 68-69

GoEagles · Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:09 pm Post subject:

Good point about the 90% number, I'm not buying that either. Here is the really weird part. Take a look at the latest Wisconsin polls - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#wi

Zogby | 10/28-10/31 | 44 51 | Kerry +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/27-30 | 52 44 | Bush +8

There is something seriously wrong when two major polls have a 15-point discrepancy.
_________________
"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04

Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry